I was wondering if you can do a article on Asian Voters, or each of the Minority Groups.


Also I was wondering about Mitt Romney, John Mccain.......



I find it funny that Paul Ryan was succeeded by Tim Ryan..... They are both Ryans.

As long as we're still asking about what's up w/ contemporary political figures, what's up w/ John Kerry??

Notes: Second article wrapping up the GOP fight after this. Then four articles after this talking about Convention and the General Election, with Election Night tomorrow.

Ohio Governor Richard Cordray Democratic Nominee for President

April 2024 -- (Columbus Ohio) Governor Richard Cordray (D-Ohio) has emerged as the Democratic nominee for President of the United States. He dispatched Governor Andrew Cuomo (D-N.Y.), who conceded after the April primaries failed to go to him (with the exception of New York). Senator Booker had dropped out in February, after failing to gain traction in the early states.

The Democratic nominee-in-waiting now turns to taking on the Republicans and tapping a Vice President. At the top of his list? Secretary Julian Castro (D-Texas), a former HUD Secretary. The potential Ohio-Texas ticket were situated in two states Trump and Pence carried; and now they would be the states that could be at the heart of the comeback. Others include Governor Tyler Olson (D-Ia.), Senator Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and Senator Kamala Harris (D-Calif.). A senior Washington law firm was already beginning to vet the potential Vice Presidential candidates.

The ticket would be constituted on the basis of - according to Democratic insiders - balancing contrasting wings of the Party. FDR - a New York liberal - had John Nance Gardner, a Texas establishmentarian Democrat. John Kennedy - a Northeastern Massachusetts liberal - had Lyndon Johnson, a more populist Texas Democrat (again). Barack Obama was a Midwestern African American liberal who had been complemented by the blue collar Scranton native named Joe Biden. The only name on the list that didn’t fit this formula was Iowa Gov. Tyler Olson (D), who would be a doubling down on what Cordray was.

The Democratic nominee-in-waiting was quickly endorsed by all the wings of the Democratic Party as the Party fell in line behind him. Senate Majority Leader Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), Speaker Tim Ryan (D-Ohio), and the rest of the Congressional Leadership endorsed Governor Cordray a day after the nomination was clinched. Governor Cuomo and Senator Booker also endorsed the Governor.

Anxious Republicans watched the Democrats unite around their cheery and optimistic nominee, with his tousled blond hair and boyish good looks, and then looked with despair to their weary and white haired President locked in a struggle with Senator Ted Cruz.

Whoops, sorry. Fixed.

Tone: The history books.

Democrats Nominate a President and See Land of Canaan

Phoenix, Arizona -- (July 2024). In the biblical story of Moses and the 40 year exile, it is said that the Israelites suffered in exile and only returned after passing through the desert. In the same vein, the Democratic Party has been in exile since 1980, driven from the political majority and forced to subsume their agenda to the ruling neoliberal evangelical Republican Party. The diehard Democrats who gathered in Phoenix, Arizona had a sense of history; that they were nearing the last port in their long exile. There was a sense of 2008 in the air, and then something else. A sense that they were finally nearing a destination for which had eluded two political generations of Democratic leaders (arguably, three, if you counted Carter and his contemporaries; Clinton and his; and then Obama and his). They were nearing a point in their history in which they saw the United States returning to hegemonic Democratic rule - if they didn’t blow the Convention and the election.

The ghosts of elections past hung in the air. There was a bitterness in the Democratic ranks, as they recalled the 2008 election and how much hope and optimism there had been. They remembered as McConnell dashed these hopes and the Tea Party had turned the Obama dream into the roving Trump nightmare. They had suffered, in many ways, since 2008, and for the older ones, since 1980. The Party had compromised their agenda, many times, to stay alive and to protect what had been hard won by the New Deal and Great Society generations. Now, they saw a moment to not only protect but to advance their agenda, to create a new Democratic era.

The speakers calibrated accordingly. They were clear and progressive on issues that united the country and the Democratic Party. There was no mistaking what the Democrats were campaigning and seeking a mandate for. 2008 had taught them that bitter lesson; Senator Obama had allowed the electorate to draw on his blank template whatever they thought he would do. Now the Democrats sought to fill in that template, telling the voters in clear terms what they would do if handed the keys to power. Governor Cordray wanted a mandate and a clear one at that; he had learned well from Governors Roosevelt and Reagan’s candidacies.

The Democrats hammered home a new policy paradigm; one that replaced the neoliberal evangelical conservative framework with a technocratic populist one with a framework to deliver prosperity and stability. The hard won Democratic ideological agenda included universal college education, trade reform, tax reform, immigration reform, combating climate change, single payer through Medicare, and financial regulatory reform. They intended to put the country on a sounder footing and they intended to replace the Reaganite vision with a new paradigm that would marry technological advancement with populist economics. They wanted to protect the scientists that advanced technology and science while also pulling working class voters who had voted Obama, Trump, and Sanders into the Democratic Party for good.

They of course used the crisis as a reference point. They castigated the Republican Party for failing to help the states with the debt crisis. They blamed the increasingly ideological and polarized Republican Party for the gridlock and the inability to solve the crisis. As Democrats, they pointed out, they had been often the more technocratic and pragmatic party. If empowered, that would continue, they assured the audience.

On issues of foreign policy, the Democrats stole the national keys from the Reagan Republicans. Without acknowledging it, they took the mantle of the national security party, advocating America’s hegemonic role in the world, for the sake of advancing the family of democracies. They railed against Russia, took potshots at dictatorial regimes, and linked themselves to the Wilsonian ideal of democracy as an essential component for countries around the world. Silently, but surely, like the mandate of Roosevelt idealism had passed to Ronald Reagan’s Republicans, the Democrats now inherited Reagan’s strong defense of America’s global role. You could see how they talked about taking on Islamic terrorism with a mixture of covert missions and using soft power to weaken the radicals. (Think empowering Iranian moderates for example)

President Obama, the country’s 44th President, at only 63, delivered a rousing speech for his former Director and gave a partisan speech. President Obama had fought long for the progressive movement and had labored to bring the Reagan era to a close in his own time. He had failed but now he knew that the Cordray Administration could do what he could not. In that spirit, he gave one of his famously eloquent speeches, and drew a distinct line between Roosevelt, the civil rights movement, his own Administration, and then to the Democratic nominee, Richard Cordray.

The Vice Presidential nominee, Secretary Julian Castro, was a link to the rising Democratic Party across the South and the Southwest. While the Presidential nominee hailed from the Midwest, the Sunbelt was turning towards the Democrats and Joaquin Castro was a sign the Democrats recognized that. Delivering an eloquent partisan bromide against the Republicans, Secretary Castro put the Democratic Party as the party of working and middle class voters and the GOP as the out of touch ideological foes of progress. Linking his own background as a Latino to the stories of the “outs” - those who had cast as “outsiders” by the Republicans, he painted an inclusive picture that energized the Democrats. He would become the first Latino Vice President, if elected.

The final night was Governor Cordray himself. Introduced by his wife, the Governor stood before the delegates and accepted the Democratic nomination for President of the United States. To cheering crowds, he reprised his liberal message and pledged to fight for the working class and to bind up the nation’s wounds in a new “mandate” that would see him empowered to take sweeping action to push the nation forward. There was little talk of reaching across the aisle and far more talk about uniting the country behind a vision of progress and change, and change that would redefine the country at large. Cordray was no shrinking violet; he wanted a mandate and asked for it that night.

That night, as the Democrats went forth, the sense hung in the audience, that the great Reaganite age was drawing to its last six months and the 40th President’s shadow would no longer hang over the country.

Good updates! What does the poling show?

Last article and then off to Election Night starting at 7 PM.

1. Whoops, good catch on Idaho. MA is set to lose an EV. I think that all adds up to 538...I'm not sure. I had to manually edit the Electoral College.

2. You'll like Election Night. I'm going to write up the last article but Election Night will have Senate elections (Thanks to Ted and he will do governors on his own).

Eh, I have time now, and all the results tallied up. So let's start Election Night 2024.

7:00 PM EST

Bill: “Good evening. Welcome to Election Night 2024. We’re at the top of the 7:00 hour, and we have some early calls to make.”

Judith: “Indeed, we do. Bill?”

Bill: “The state of Indiana, casting its 11 electoral votes for the President, his home state of Indiana stays Republican. Kentucky is too close to call. We’re also projecting that Vermont, Georgia, and Virginia are all Democratic tonight, while South Carolina is too close to call.”

Judith: “And that’s 11 electoral votes for the President, 29 for the Governor, and 17 undecided.”

Ben: “And the United States Senate races in Indiana and West Virginia, with GOP incumbents in both, are too close to call. Sen. Luke Messer in Indiana is facing off against former Rep. Andre Carson, while Sen. Evan Jenkins, also a Republican, is facing stiff competition from former Secretary Natalie Tennant.”

7:30 PM EST

Bill: “At the 7:30 hour, we’re projecting the states of North Carolina and Ohio going to the Democratic nominee, by a significant margin. We’re also projecting that West Virginia remains too close on the Presidential level.”

Judith: That's 11 for the President, 62 for the Governor, and 21 undecided."

[No maps and pop vote until 8:00 PM]

Bill: “And now at the 8 pm closings….the following states can be projected. …

Alabama to the President; Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Washington, D.C. to Governor Cordray. Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee are all too close to call.”  

Judith: “And that’s correct, Bill. That makes 189 electoral votes for the Governor, 19 for the President, and 21 undecided.”



24% of Precincts Reporting

Cordray/Castro (Democrat): 18,986,914 - 50.72% - 189 electoral votes  
Pence/Haley (Republican): 17,137,636 - 45.78% - 21 electoral votes
Others: 1,310,217 - 3.50%

Totals: 37,289,106 | Margin: 7.44%

Fixed.