Coronavirus lockdowns could lead to 6.3M tuberculosis cases and 1.4M deaths worldwide: Study

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Lockdown measures due to the coronavirus could set health officials around the world back in their fight against tuberculosis.

“A three-month lockdown across different parts of the world and a gradual return to normal over 10 months could result in an additional 6.3 million cases of tuberculosis and 1.4 million deaths from it,” the New York Times reported Monday about one modeling analysis from the Stop TB Partnership. That is the estimate for 2020 to 2025.

Tuberculosis, malaria, and HIV cases have been on the decline in recent years, but due to the coronavirus, the three diseases are “making a comeback.” Countries such as Indonesia, South Africa, and Mozambique have reported significant declines in diagnosing tuberculosis, to the tune of up to a 70% drop.

“Covid-19 risks derailing all our efforts and taking us back to where we were 20 years ago,” Dr. Pedro Alonso, the director of the World Health Organization’s global malaria program, told the outlet.

One doctor in Mexico said health clinics aren’t testing for tuberculosis due to focus on the coronavirus.

“Nobody is testing for TB at any facility,” Dr. Giorgio Franyuti said. “The mind of clinicians in Mexico, as well as decision makers, is stuck with Covid-19.”

“TB is the biggest monster of them all. If we’re talking about deaths and pandemics, 10 million cases a year,” he added.

Lockdowns and fear over the coronavirus have prevented patients with tuberculosis, malaria, or HIV from visiting medical professionals, and restrictions on traveling prevented medications to reach destinations where patients require the drugs.

“About 80 percent of tuberculosis, H.I.V. and malaria programs worldwide have reported disruptions in services, and one in four people living with H.I.V. have reported problems with gaining access to medications, according to U.N. AIDS. Interruptions or delays in treatment may lead to drug resistance, already a formidable problem in many countries,” the outlet reported.

The disruption to receiving HIV treatment could lead to an additional 500,000 deaths, according to the World Health Organization, and a worst-case scenario for malaria-related deaths could reach 770,000.

“The more you leave undiagnosed and untreated, the more you will have next year and the year after,” Dr. Lucica Ditiu, of the Stop TB Partnership, said.

There have so far been nearly 700,000 deaths linked to the coronavirus across the world and 18 million confirmed COVID-19 cases.

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