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2016 NCAA Championships - System Comparisons
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How often do the different rating systems correctly predict the winners of matches?
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TRNUTR
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72.4%42%71.6%
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100%5 / 12 50%
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1 / 1 4 / 8
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78%
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74 / 95
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50%0%
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4 / 8 0 / 1
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58%
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7 / 12
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ITA
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73.3%
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All Rating Systems
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How often do all the systems agree on the outcome?
95matches82%of the time
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When they agree, how often does the higher rated player win?
74times78%of the time
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When they agree, how often does the lower rated player win?
21times22%of the time
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TRN & UTR Ratings
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How often do TRN and UTR agree on the outcome?
107matches92%of the time
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When they agree, how often does the higher rated player win?
79times74%of the time
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When they agree, how often does the lower rated player win?
28times26%of the time
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How often do TRN and UTR disagree on the outcome?
9matches8%of the time
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When they disagree, how often does the higher rated TRN player win?
5times56%of the time
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When they disagree, how often does the higher rated UTR player win?
4times44%of the time
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TRN & ITA Ratings
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How often do TRN and ITA agree on the outcome?
103matches89%of the time
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When they agree, how often does the higher rated player win?
78times76%of the time
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When they agree, how often does the lower rated player win?
25times24%of the time
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How often do TRN and ITA disagree on the outcome?
13matches11%of the time
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When they disagree, how often does the higher rated TRN player win?
6times46%of the time
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When they disagree, how often does the higher rated ITA player win?
7times54%of the time
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UTR & ITA Ratings
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How often do UTR and ITA agree on the outcome?
96matches83%of the time
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When they agree, how often does the higher rated player win?
74times77%of the time
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When they agree, how often does the lower rated player win?
22times23%of the time
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How often do UTR and ITA disagree on the outcome?
20matches17%of the time
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When they disagree, how often does the higher rated UTR player win?
9times45%of the time
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When they disagree, how often does the higher rated ITA player win?
11times55%of the time
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Notes: This chart only uses the 116 matches from our study that were played to completion where both players were rated by all systems and player ratings were unique (i.e., no projected ties).
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