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Submarine landslide tsunamis: how extreme and how likely?

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Abstract

A number of examples are presented to substantiate that submarine landslides have occurred along most continental margins and along several volcano flanks. Their properties of importance for tsunami generation (i.e. physical dimensions, acceleration, maximum velocity, mass discharge, and travel distance) can all gain extreme values compared to their subaerial counterparts. Hence, landslide tsunamis may also be extreme and have regional impact. Landslide tsunami characteristics are discussed explaining how they may exceed tsunamis induced by megathrust earthquakes, hence representing a significant risk even though they occur more infrequently. In fact, submarine landslides may cause potentially extreme tsunami run-up heights, which may have consequences for the design of critical infrastructure often based on unjustifiably long return periods. Giant submarine landslides are rare and related to climate changes or glacial cycles, indicating that giant submarine landslide tsunami hazard is in most regions negligible compared to earthquake tsunami hazard. Large-scale debris flows surrounding active volcanoes or submarine landslides in river deltas may be more frequent. Giant volcano flank collapses at the Canary and Hawaii Islands developed in the early stages of the history of the volcanoes, and the tsunamigenic potential of these collapses is disputed. Estimations of recurrence intervals, hazard, and uncertainties with today’s methods are discussed. It is concluded that insufficient sampling and changing conditions for landslide release are major obstacles in transporting a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) approach from earthquake to landslide tsunamis and that the more robust Scenario-Based Tsunami Hazard Assessment (SBTHA) approach will still be most efficient to use. Finally, the needs for data acquisition and analyses, laboratory experiments, and more sophisticated numerical modelling for improved understanding and hazard assessment of landslide tsunamis are elaborated.

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Acknowledgments

The authors are indebted to Profs. H.-P. Plag and S. Marsh for arranging the research conference ‘Understanding Extreme Geohazards: The Science of the Disaster Risk Management Cycle’ supported by the European Science Foundation (ESF) in partnership with the European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) in Sant Feliu de Guixols, Spain, 27 November–2 December 2011, and for initiating this subsequent special issue on extreme geohazards. M. Vanneste, A. Armigliato, and C.F. Forsberg are thanked for helpful discussions and information. Two anonymous reviewers are thanked for valuable comments that improved the manuscript. The work on this manuscript has been financially supported by the Research Council of Norway under project no. 205184. The Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI), NORSAR, and the International Centre for Geohazards (ICG) are also thanked for supporting the work. This is contribution no. 419 of the ICG.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI), P.O. Box 3930 Ullevaal Stadion, 0806, Oslo, Norway

    Carl B. Harbitz & Finn Løvholt

  2. NORSAR, P.O. Box 53, 2027, Kjeller, Norway

    Hilmar Bungum

  3. International Centre for Geohazards (ICG), P.O. Box 3930 Ullevaal Stadion, 0806, Oslo, Norway

    Carl B. Harbitz, Finn Løvholt & Hilmar Bungum

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  1. Carl B. Harbitz
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  2. Finn Løvholt
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Correspondence to Carl B. Harbitz.

Appendix

Appendix

Figures 2 and 5 are mainly based on databases of the NOAA National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC 2013) and the Novosibirsk Tsunami Laboratory (NTL 2013). For many of the events the source information is corrected based on recent updates of earthquake locations, focal depths, magnitudes, and tsunami observations (BRGM 2009; Engdahl and Villaseñor 2002; Engdahl et al. 2007; E. R. Engdahl pers. comm. 2007; Villaseñor and Engdahl 2007). Using the validity index describing how likely it is that the record is a tsunami or not, tsunamis categorized as erroneous or very doubtful were removed from the queries, whereas data being categorized as questionable, probable, or definite are included. Some data have also been removed (by us) after a careful inspection of the literature sources. Parameters assigned by NOAA/NGDC for recent events were largely reliable, but discrepancies are expected to be prominent for the older events.

If sources are categorized as earthquake or probable earthquake, they are referred to as earthquakes in the visualization and the statistics. For the earthquakes, we include the magnitude, which might be of unspecified kind, or reported as the surface wave magnitude M s or the moment magnitude M w . Moreover, for a number of the earthquakes, particularly the oldest ones, the magnitude is not reported. Where combinations of sources are reported, sources are grouped into one of the main categories (landslides or volcanoes) to simplify the visualization. For Fig. 2 the two databases are supplemented with papers describing certain events (Imamura et al. 1995b; Natawidjaja et al. 2006; Ortiz and Bilham 2003; Satake and Atwater 2007). For Fig. 5 the two databases are in turn based on tsunami catalogues compiled by Mercado-Irizarry and Liu (2006), O’Loughlin and Lander (2003), and Shepherd et al. (1995). The results should be used with caution, as there are large uncertainties related to these data. For further information on the databases, see Harbitz et al. (2012), Løvholt et al. (2012c), and NGI (2011).

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Harbitz, C.B., Løvholt, F. & Bungum, H. Submarine landslide tsunamis: how extreme and how likely?. Nat Hazards 72, 1341–1374 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0681-3

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