密大专家观点：中国股市下跌原因及“救市”建议
Linda Lim (林愿清）教授， 密歇根大学罗斯商学院经济学家, 对中国股市下跌的看法。
1. The Chinese stock market plunge is only to be expected since
a. The stock market had risen to unsustainable and unjustifiable heights earlier this year based in part on government encouragement. When stock prices are not based on market fundamentals like earnings and growth, they will and must fall. What we are seeing is an asset bubble bursting.
b. China's GDP growth and manufacturing output has been slowing perhaps more than markets expected. There is some lack of trust in government data but even that data is pointing to a slowdown.
c. Added to this there is great uncertainty as to what the government will do. This also leads to investors pulling their savings out of the stock market.
1. 中国股市下挫是可以遇见的，原因1）今年年初在政府的鼓励下，
2. I don't know what the central government should do. At this point I don't think they can or should do anything other than to seek to assure investors that they will (a) do what they still can to help/stimulate the REAL economy (which is different from the stock market) e.g.cut interest rates, increase government spending but will (b) stop intervening in the stock market where we can see that intervention has made things worse rather than better. In the medium to longer term (i.e. other than immediately) (c) they need to persist with market-oriented reforms and financial market reforms so that this will not happen again.
2. 我不知道中央政府会如何应对此次股市下跌。 在这个关头，我认为他们除了让投资者安心，1） 想法设法去救市（并不是股市，而是实体经济），采取例如降息， 提高政府开销等策略， 2） 不要干预股市， 他们应该看到越是干预，事情越糟。 长期的策略会是3）追求以市场为导向的改革及金融市场改革，
3. If the market fall has caused stock prices to be undervalued according to market fundamentals e.g. price-earnings ratios etc.then investors will enter the market to buy now-cheaper stocks which are a good value, and this will put a bottom to the fall. But if (a) stocks are still overvalued and (b) investors are uncertain what the government will do,then prices could continue to fall.
3. 如果股市下跌，导致股价被低估，根据市场基本面，
The stock market is a MARKET i.e. prices are determined by supply and demand and the risk-return preferences of investors. All stock markets are like that. The added complication in China is that the government is a BIG, UNPREDICTABLE non-market actor which has shown it is willing to intervene in the market suddenly and without explanation. This makes the Chinese market more volatile, risky and uncertain than others。 Note that or investors to correctly estimate market fundamentals they need to have reliable and trustworthy data, and to trust in the transparency and accountability of Chinese corporates' financial statements and corporate governance--which I don't think exists yet.
4. 股票市场本质是个市场。其价格是由供需及投资者的收益－风险偏好决定的。
提醒：
专家观点，并不代表密歇根大学校方观点。我校欢迎各方不同的声音，欢迎留言。