EDITORIAL
Arranging EU-Turkey cooperation in the era of transactional leadership
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The EU-Turkey relationship has now become purely transactional in nature. All indicators suggest that this will be increasingly the case during the next twenty years or so. It is important to make explicit what kind of mechanism has led to the current situation, and then evaluate what could be the framework within which to arrange EU-Turkey cooperation in the years to come.
The founders of the Republic perceived Turkey’s new civilizational identity as part of the West. In the conservative centre-right tradition Turkey’s quest for EC/EU-membership has been based on calculating the expected economic benefits. Together these two maintained Turkey’s European vocation from the 1950s to the early 2000s.
On the one hand, the Association Agreement with Turkey in 1963 was signed in the context of Cold War realities, and implemented without wider societal debate. On the other hand, the next major steps in deepening the institutional ties, the 1995 Customs Union and the acceptance of Turkey’s official candidacy in 1999, took place in a completely different historical context. The Cold War setting was gone, and the European integration process was largely transformed with the establishment of the Copenhagen criteria in 1993. Since then, the conditions for the EU membership have taken an explicitly normative form, requiring a candidate country to achieve stability of institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights, and respect for minorities in addition to functioning market economy.
Since the 1990s, the approach emphasizing conditionality, the consolidation of liberal democratic institutions and practices - not only in the candidate countries but also in the wider neighbourhood - has become a key dimension of the EU’s self-perception. Yet at the same time Turkey’s membership had been politicized in many EU countries. With these expectations guiding the EU, Turkey’s candidacy in 1999 was an uneasy compromise between those favoring and opposing its full membership. As a result, Turkey’s real membership prospect became somewhat illusory.
Since the beginning of the 2000s, Turkey has been completely transformed by the Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, AKP). The party emerged from two constituencies with very different views on the EU and the West. AKP is a synthesis of conservative centre-right and Turkish political Islam (Milli Görüş). During the last ten years, the party leadership has little by little purged all centrist elements.
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After initial democratic steps, the AKP under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has not only consolidated but also to a significant degree expanded the power of the authoritarian executive branch, which it inherited from the notorious 1980 military regime. Simultaneously, there is a slow but noticeable process occurring in the societal level, where the traditional centrist majority, under the state’s guidance, is reformulating its values towards more Islamist and anti-Western posture.
By now, it is evident that the AKP leadership and constituencies backing the party see Turkey as the leading Islamic country in a multipolar world, where Turkey’s relations with Europe are purely transactional, and not different from the country’s relations with other actors, such as China, Russia, and Qatar. In addition, during the long years of AKP rule, the secularist constituency has become rather EU-sceptic.
Ending Turkey’s candidacy is unlikely. Restarting at later stage would require unanimous agreement that presumably would not be secured. All this points to some form of three-tier Europe, originally formulated by the then French Prime Minister Edouard Balladur in 1994, whereby Turkey in particular takes its place at the outer circle, being not part of the EU but having strong economic and security links with it. It is noteworthy that current French President Emmanuel Macron has also recently suggested an updated version of a Europe of three circles.
Now, Turkey and the EU engage with each other in order to discuss Turkey’s financial crisis, developments in Syria, and the agreement on Syrian refugees. In the context of its worst crisis with the USA since the 1970s, Turkey’s leadership has toned down its EU bashing. As President Erdoğan visits Berlin in late September, he will be received as a representative of a country that is formally an EU candidate but in all practical terms of an authoritarian state with which the Union maintains strategic cooperation.
Toni Alaranta
Senior Research Fellow
The Finnish Institute of International Affairs
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VIADUCT welcomes its new Financial and Project Manager!
As of 1 August 2018, Darius Ribbe has joined the VIADUCT coordination team at CETEUS (University of Cologne) as the new Financial and Project Manager. Darius has been previously working at CETEUS for 3 years and has thus gained valuable project experience that he now wants to put forward for the VIADUCT cause.
Lisa Hammelrath will stay on as VIADUCT’s Project Assistant, working on day-to-day issues.
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Save the date! 2nd VIADUCT Week, 18-22 March 2019, Istanbul
 The 2nd VIADUCT Week will take place in Istanbul on 18-22 March 2018. It will include a PhD workshop organized by ETH Zurich, as well as VIADUCT's Second Annual Conference organized by Sabanci University. More information will soon be available on the VIADUCT website.
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Launch of TEPSA book: "The future of Europe: views from the capitals", 27 September 2018, Brussels
 In this book, researchers from TEPSA member institutes and beyond assess how their country could get more involved in the European debate, taking the reader on a journey through various political landscapes and different views. The book is edited by Michael Kaeding (TEPSA Chairman and Jean Monnet Professor at the University of Duisburg-Essen), Johannes Pollak (Webster University Vienna) and Paul Schmidt (Austrian Society for European Politics).
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FIIA seminar on Turkey's Kurdish question, autumn 2018
 In autumn 2018, VIADUCT partner FIIA will organize a seminar on Turkey’s Kurdish question to discuss the possible forms the Kurdish issue will take in the new context of executive presidency regime. More information will soon be available on the FIIA website.
MERI Forum 2018: "What is next for the Middle East", 22-24 October 2018, Erbil
 This forum is MERI's annual conference, designed to provide an academic and neutral platform to engage local and international stakeholders, opinion-leaders, and decision-makers for debating key issues affecting Iraq and the wider Middle East.
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TEPSA EU@Work seminar for undergraduate students, 12-15 November 2018, Brussels
 Applications are open for the EU@Work seminar organized by the VIADUCT partner Trans European Policy Studies Association (TEPSA). EU@Work is a 4-day training on EU affairs, which will gather 20 high-school and BA students and provide them with first-hand understanding of the functioning of the EU through lectures by leading experts and visits to EU institutions. Deadline for applications is 30 September 2018.
Read more Migration continues to be one of the most sensitive and debated topics within the EU and its Member States. For this reason, TEPSA is organizing a detailed seminar for Master’s students and graduates on EU Asylum and Migration policies. This training will offer 20 participants an opportunity to gain first-hand insights from researchers, EU practitioners, policymakers and officials on the current state of play of the migration challenge. Participants will follow tailored lectures by leading academics, complemented with visits to all the main EU institutions. Deadline for applications is 21 October 2018.
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Sabanci University Award: Sakip Sabanci International Research Award
 In honour of the late Sakip Sabanci, Honorary Chairman of the Board of Trustees of Sabanci University, this award is given each year in the field of social sciences. This year's theme is: "Future of multilateralism in global turmoil: rethinking security, economy, democracy". Deadline for applications is 15 January 2019.
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FIIA seminar: Brexit and Beyond – the post-Brexit EU from Ireland’s perspective, 5 September 2018, Helsinki
 This seminar organised by the VIADUCT Partner Finnish Institute of International Affairs was chaired by Teija Tiilikainen, (FIIA Director) and featured a keynote presentation by Simon Coveney (Tánaiste and Minister for Foreign Affairs & Trade of Ireland).
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FIIA seminar: Refounding the European Union: next steps ahead, 15 June 2018, Helsinki
 This seminar organised by the VIADUCT Partner Finnish Institute of International Affairs was chaired by Teija Tiilikainen, (FIIA Director) and featured a keynote presentation by Nathalie Loiseau (Minister for European Affairs of France).
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CETEUS-TAU conference: "New political challenges for Germany, Turkey and the EU", 18 May 2018, Istanbul
 The Turkish-German University organized, in cooperation with CETEUS and the INSITER project, an international symposium titled “New political challenges for Germany, Turkey and the EU – 2018” with the participation of more than 100 guests including academicians, representatives of non-governmental organizations and students from different universities.
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MERI Policy Debate: "How Deep Are The Gaps Between Turkey And The EU In The Middle East?", 6 May 2018
 A special roundtable discussion, attended by European, Turkish and other diplomats as well as local policy makers, politicians and academics, discussed MERI's two recent studies on 1) how the security and political developments in Iraq and Syria have the potential to influence Ankara-Brussels relations; and 2) the energy drivers that influence Ankara's and Brussels’ policies in the Middle East region and Caspian Basin.
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NEWS FROM VIADUCT RESEARCHERS
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- Ebru Turhan (TAU) participated in the 25th IPSA World Congress of Political Science (21-25 July 2018, Brisbane), where she presented her paper “From Accession to Partnership? Normative Questions about the EU’s Enlargement Policy towards Turkey”.
- Ebru Turhan (TAU) held a guest lecture on“EU-Turkey Relations: State of Play, Future Prospects and Germany’s Role” (19 June 2018, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg).
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