An estimated $2 billion would be stripped from California public schools if the tax extensions championed by Gov. Jerry Brown on Monday during his State of the State address are not approved by California voters.
Brown has proposed a five-year extension of the income and sales taxes and vehicle license fees that were authorized by state lawmakers on a tentative basis in 2009. The tax extensions would raise an estimated $12 billion to help close the state’s projected $25.4 billion budget deficit. The governor also has proposed $12.5 billion in cuts to state programs and services.
“When democratic ideals and calls for the right to vote are stirring the imagination of young people in Egypt and Tunisia and other parts of the world, we in California can’t say now is the time to block a vote of the people,” Brown said during his State of the State address, urging support for his tax-extension ballot initiative.
“When elected officials find themselves bogged down by deep differences which divide them, the only way forward is to go back to the people and seek their guidance. It’s time for a legislative check-in with the people of California.”
SCENARIO 1: Tax extensions pass
If Brown’s tax extension proposal passes muster with voters, he has promised not to cut more money from K-12 education. But schools would continue to operate on razor-thin margins.
Because of past budget cutting, K-12 schools are operating on about $6.2 billion less this year than they were three years ago, even as the costs to keep their doors open continue to rise.
Although schools across California have pared their budgets and laid off thousands of employees, many teachers are eligible for automatic raises every year through a pay matrix that rewards them for years of service and holding advanced credentials. (Some districts have implemented temporary freezes in these pay raises.)
Schools also have experienced steep hikes in the cost of employee health insurance, with the average cost of health insurance jumping 12.2 percent between 2008-09 and 2009-10. (By comparison, the average price hike in California during that time period was 8.1 percent, and 3 percent nationally.)
SCENARIO 2: Tax extensions fail
If state lawmakers don’t allow the tax extensions to appear on a June ballot as Brown wants, or if voters don’t approve them, public schools will almost certainly see more of their funding stripped.
To get the tax extensions on the ballot, Brown would need to persuade two-thirds of state lawmakers to authorize their placement – a tough political maneuver that would require some Republican support. Many GOP lawmakers have come out against the proposed ballot initiative, pointing out California voters rejected a similar measure two years ago.
Even if the tax extension issue were to appear on the June ballot, it could be rejected by voters. In that case, the state would have less cash in its coffers, and consequently, the state’s minimum-funding guarantee for public education – as authorized under Proposition 98 – would be lower. K-12 schools and community colleges would receive an estimated $47.3 billion in revenue in 2011-12, instead of a projected $49.3 billion, according to the Sacramento-based education consulting firm School Services of California.
School Services – used by school districts across California for financial planning advice – calculates that K-12 schools would lose $2.1 billion under the deal, or $113 million more than the $2 billion the governor’s office has projected.
School Services says K-12 funding is calculated each year using a complex formula that projects what the funding level should be and then slices a certain percentage from that level (in this case, 19.3 percent for 2011-12).
RESPONSE: How schools are preparing
County Superintendent William Habermehl has reiterated that his office will advise the county’s 28 school districts to plan for the scenario that involves $2 billion in cuts to education.
“It might be a 50/50 chance whether voters approve the tax extensions,” he said. “But the way the system is set up for school funding, districts can’t really gamble. It’s a lot easier to plan for the worst and adjust for more funding, rather than to plan for the best and have to go back later and slash more jobs and spending.”
Schools across California are also expected to plan for the worst.
Consequently, School Services predicts that hundreds of teachers and other employees statewide will be issued preliminary layoff notices by the state’s mandatory March 15 deadline. If the governor’s proposal to seek tax extensions ends up on the June ballot, school districts will not know until after that election whether they can rescind the majority of their layoff notices.
If they still don’t have a balanced budget under the worst-case scenario, schools also would begin identifying student services and programs for possible elimination, School Services predicts.
Contact the writer: 949-454-7394 or smartindale@ocregister.com
