IDC and Gartner PC v Tablet forecast to 2015, when Gartner puts tablet unit sales at 60% of PCs'
Tablet computers will see an explosion in sales over the next four years, selling 60% as many units as PCs by 2015 – and Apple's iPad will still have almost half the market by then, says the research group Gartner in a bullish forecast.
But the predictions, which study the period from 2010 to 2015, are less hopeful about the current prospects for Google's Android as a tablet operating system, saying that its appeal is presently limited by "high prices, weak user interface and limited tablet applications", according to Carlina Milanesi, Gartner's research vice-president.
Gartner tablet forecast to 2015: Apple will have just under 50% of the market of 326m, forecast says
It is only after 2014 that Milanesi sees Android, which is already available from a wide range of tablet manufacturers, gaining more than a 50% share over Apple, which presently only offers its iPad 2 model.
"This is because Apple delivers a superior and unified user experience across its hardware, software and services," she said. "Unless competitors can respond with a similar approach, challenges to Apple's position will be minimal. Apple had the foresight to create this market and in doing that planned for it as far as component supplies such as memory and screen. This allowed Apple to bring the iPad out at a very competitive price and no compromise in experience among the different models that offer storage and connectivity options." She reckons that Apple will command 73.4% of the "media tablet" market this year, shipping nearly 47m devices, up from 14.6m in 2010.
For 2015, Milanesi forecasts that Apple will sell 148m iPads, out of a total of 326m, while "media tablets" using Microsoft's new Windows 8 operating system – probably running on ARM, rather than Intel, processors – are forecast to make up just 34m of the figure. Rival research company IDC's most recent forecast earlier this month suggests that in 2015 a total of 535m PCs will be sold; if both companies' figures are accurate, that would mean tablets shipping 60% as many units as PCs. In 2010 around 347m PCs were shipped, and just 17m tablets – almost all iPads.
Milanesi agreed that the predictions were bullish: "Usually at Gartner we're told we're too conservative. With tablets, we have been bullish from the start."
For this year Gartner has lowered its forecast for the number of Android tablets that will ship by 28%, buoyed only by the success of low-end tablets in Asian markets, particularly China, and by the expected release of an Android-based tablet from the internet retailer Amazon next month.
This year Gartner does not expect any other platform than iOS and Android to have more than a 5% share. HP's webOS, which runs on its TouchPad, is forecast to make a 2m bip in the figures – and then be snuffed out, following HP's decision in August to kill the platform.
Milanesi is more optimistic than many others about the prospects for Rim's QNX operating system, presently used on its 7in PlayBook tablet. It reckons that a total of 3m will be shipped this year, mainly to corporate customers. "We have seen some enterprise pickup, and the price drop helps," Milanesi said of the PlayBook, which has only shipped 700,000 in its first two quarters according to Rim's accounts.
"Most of Apple's competitors are struggling to meet Apple's prices without considerably sacrificing margins. Screen quality and processing power are the two hardware features that vendors cannot afford to compromise on," said Roberta Cozza, principal analyst at Gartner. "They should consider everything else 'nice to have', rather than essential, in order to keep bills-of-materials costs competitive with those of the iPad."
Gartner warns that the excitement around Microsoft's demonstration of Windows 8, expected next year, at the Build conference in Anaheim could be lost if it is seen as compromising usability so that Microsoft can extend Windows across both PCs and tablets: "The late arrival might limit its appeal, especially to consumers, as Apple and Android will be more entrenched by then," Gartner commented in a research note. "Microsoft's platform will find its biggest opportunities in the enterprise segment, where IT departments could benefit from smoother integration with existing Microsoft software."
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