Judged solely by national polls, Donald Trump has a virtual lock on the Republican nomination. The sense of inevitability that accompanied his entry into the race, then waned a bit as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis immediately grabbed a quarter of the primary electorate and looked to be surging, has returned. The latest New York Times/Siena College poll showed him earning 54% of the vote and beating DeSantis, battered by stagnant polls and campaign missteps, by 37 points. Call it a coronation after all?
The problem with conceding the race to Trump even now is that the opening DeSantis tried (and still tries) to capitalize on is still there. Six months ago, Trump looked anemic in those same national polls, with his numbers much closer to 40%. And in the early states Iowa and New Hampshire, where his competitors are spending most of their time and money, he still does. Polls sponsored by the Trump-friendly American Greatness have consistently shown Trump in the low 40s in both states, a poll last month by the University of New Hampshire showed him in the 30s in New Hampshire, and multiple campaigns have privately found him in the low 40s/high 30s. Plugged-in politicos in both states, like evangelical Bob Vander Plaats in Iowa and New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, have been saying for a while that both states are open to an alternative.
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Yet even a weak Trump could win the nomination. Somebody has to beat him. Richard Ben Cramer famously titled his history of the 1988 primary campaign What It Takes. That’s a good way to think about 2024. Who has what it takes to slay the Trump dragon?
For the last year, the obvious answer has come back: DeSantis. For conservatives who are tired of Trump’s antics and worried that he cannot win a general election, DeSantis has been a no-brainer. A fantastic governor from one of the country’s largest states, DeSantis has close to universal name recognition among Republicans as well as a large war chest left over from his impressive 2022 reelection.
Count me among them. The day that DeSantis announced his candidacy, I cut a very large check to his primary campaign. I think Trump’s behavior since he lost the 2020 election has been disgraceful. I think he’s a likely loser in 2024. The GOP doesn’t owe him the nomination, and the sooner it cashiers him, the better. DeSantis seemed to have what it takes to convince the party to do that. And I put my money where my mouth was.
But doubts have crept in. To be sure, DeSantis can still deliver a forceful and informed stump speech, and usually does well in interviews. The questions instead surround the kind of campaign he has put together. Money is already a problem. Though DeSantis raised $20 million in his first few weeks as a candidate, he burned through a lot of it, despite not having any ads on the air. Much of the spending went to a bloated staff and private airplane travel.
The staff itself has been embarrassingly “too online,” as the saying goes. A DeSantis campaign staffer was fired for having put together a controversial web ad featuring a Nazi image, but a report by Semafor makes clear that it was a team effort.
DeSantis also has not put together a meaningful campaign message that transcends the culture war or various niche issues. Most Republicans want to hear about what he’ll do on the economy, not the dangers of a central bank digital currency. DeSantis has also ground his gears in pointless kerfuffles, like whether he’d “sic” notorious anti-vaxxer Robert Kennedy, Jr. on the health bureaucracy, and the nuts and bolts of curriculum on slavery for Florida students.
Perhaps not surprisingly, DeSantis’s numbers in the early states have slipped, even as Trump’s have been flat.
It’s still early, which means there is lots of time for the Florida governor to course correct. But what if he can’t? Maybe DeSantis is best suited as a governor and not cut out for a presidential campaign — like a great college football coach who just isn’t made for the NFL.
It behooves conservatives at least to consider the rest of the field. If DeSantis doesn’t have what it takes, who does? After all, if Trump’s numbers in crucial states have stalled, the anti-Trump numbers are still there for someone.
Perhaps South Carolina Senator Tim Scott can capitalize. There is a lot to like about Scott, and he is worth a careful look. Recent polling has put him at double digits in Iowa, suggesting he’s already getting that look, and some like what they see.
From a strategic standpoint, Scott has an intriguing path to victory. As a committed evangelical Christian, he fits in well with the average Iowa caucus goer, who historically has preferred candidates who wear their faith on their sleeves. Think Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, and Ted Cruz. The downside, however, is that these candidates tend to fall flat in New Hampshire, where the electorate is more secular and less disposed to a faith-based pitch. Scott might be able to square that circle. While he’s religious, he eschews the kind of cultural saber-rattling that undermined Huckabee, Santorum, and Cruz in the Granite State. One can imagine Scott winning over Iowa evangelicals by talking about his faith without alienating New Hampshire Republicans. And then after New Hampshire, the contest comes to his home state of South Carolina. While Trump has strength with low country South Carolinians (like Myrtle Beach), Scott has a solid base in the up country (like Greenville and Spartanburg).
From an organizational standpoint, there is also a lot to like about Scott. His campaign had $21 million in the bank at the end of quarter two, while his SuperPAC had an additional $15 million. Much of Scott’s cash is left over from his Senate campaign from 2020, where he showed himself to be a prodigious fundraiser. And while the DeSantis campaign’s staffing bloat has kept it off the airwaves, Scott has been advertising, and it shows — he’s climbing in polls in New Hampshire in addition to Iowa.
And Scott has been a solid vote on conservative issues in the Senate. He caught some flak from the Right for scuttling a few Trump judges, but in the aggregate he has been reliable. His lifetime Heritage Action score is 84% and his ACU rating is 90%. That’s not quite as conservative as Ted Cruz or Mike Lee, but Scott is no squish. Some conservatives think he is too willing to bend to the demands of the Left on issues of race — citing those Trump judges as examples — but that misses the forest for the trees. The mere fact that Scott is an African American who is proud to be a Republican is a sign of courage. Black Republicans like Scott and Clarence Thomas are derided, not feted by the powers that be in the American Left, which now dominate every facet of our culture.
Still, questions remain about Scott. “He’s too nice,” is a common complaint. Hopefully our politics is not so far gone that only brutes can win American elections! Still, it’s fair to say that Scott’s time in the Senate means he hasn’t demonstrated himself as a potential executive. That problem isn’t unsolvable. Barack Obama and John Kerry, both senators, proved to Democrats that they had the steel in the spine necessary to wield the powers of the presidency. Scott has yet to demonstrate that. He will have to if he wants to be a major contender. Voters will have to believe that behind the endearing smile is a man willing to do what needs to be done.
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The way for Scott to begin doing that is offering policy details. To date, his campaign has focused on biography. That makes sense for somebody who needs to introduce himself to the public, but it is time for him to explain to voters the unique vision of a Scott administration. What does Scott offer that his opponents don’t? We don’t know yet, so it’s hard to judge whether he’d be a good fit. The sooner his campaign offers those details, the sooner we can begin to evaluate him.
While Trump is vulnerable, somebody still has to beat him. Hopefully, somebody can. Based on his record in Florida, DeSantis certainly seemed to be the guy. Maybe he still is. But as his campaign seems stuck in neutral, it’s time to at least consider the rest of the field. While the jury is still out, perhaps Tim Scott has what it takes. He still has to prove himself, but there’s enough to his candidacy for conservatives to give him a serious look.
Jay Cost is a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and a visiting scholar at Grove City College.
