Abstract
There have been many recent studies on forecasting emerging and vacant technologies. Most of them depend on a qualitative analysis such as Delphi. However, a qualitative analysis consumes too much time and money. To resolve this problem, we propose a quantitative emerging technology forecasting model. In this model, patent data are applied because they include concrete technology information. To apply patent data for a quantitative analysis, we derive a Patent–Keyword matrix using text mining. A principal component analysis is conducted on the Patent–Keyword matrix to reduce its dimensionality and derive a Patent–Principal Component matrix. The patents are also grouped together based on their technology similarities using the K-medoids algorithm. The emerging technology is then determined by considering the patent information of each cluster. In this study, we construct the proposed emerging technology forecasting model using patent data related to IEEE 802.11g and verify its performance.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Jun, S.H., Park, S.S., Jang, D.S.: Technology forecasting using matrix map and patent clustering. Industrial Management & Data Systems 112(5), 786–807 (2012)
Kim, Y.S., Park, S.S., Jang, D.S.: Patent data analysis using CLARA algorithm: OLED Technology. The Journal of Korean Institute of Information Technology 10(6), 161–170 (2012)
Lee, S., Yoon, B., Park, Y.: An approach to discovering new technology opportunities: Keyword-based patent map approach. Technovation 29(6-7), 481–497 (2009)
Campbell, R.S.: Patent trends as a technological forecasting tool. World Patent Information 5(3), 137–143 (1983)
Lee, J.H., Kim, G.J., Park, S.S., Jang, D.S.: A study on the effect of firm’s patent activity on business performance - Focus on time lag analysis of IT industry. Journal of the Korea Society of Digital Industry and Information Management 9(2), 121–137 (2013)
Chen, Y.S., Chang, K.C.: The relationship between a firm’s patent quality and its market value: The case of US pharmaceutical industry. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 77(1), 20–33 (2010)
Lanjouw, J.O., Schankerman, M.: Patent quality and research productivity: Measuring innovation with multiple indicators. The Economic Journal 114(495), 441–465 (2004)
Hair, J.F., Black, B., Babin, B., Anderson, R.E.: Multivariate Data Analysis (1992)
Youk, Y.S., Kim, S.H., Joo, Y.H.: Intelligent data reduction algorithm for sensor network based fault diagnostic system. International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems 9(4), 301–308 (2009)
Keum, J.S., Lee, H.S., Masafumi, H.: A novel speech/music discrimination using feature dimensionality reduction. International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems 10(1), 7–11 (2010)
Jolliffe, I.T.: Principal Component Analysis (2002)
Park, W.C.: Data mining concepts and techniques (2003)
Uhm, D.H., Jun, S.H., Lee, S.J.: A classification method using data reduction. International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems 12(1), 1–5 (2012)
Yi, J.H., Jung, W.K., Park, S.S., Jang, D.S.: The lag analysis on the impact of patents on profitability of firms in software industry at segment level. Journal of the Korea Society of Digital Industry and Information Management 8(2), 199–212 (2012)
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Economic Analysis and Statistics Division: OECD Science. Technology and Industry Scoreboard: Towards a Knowledge-based Economy (2001)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2014 Springer International Publishing Switzerland
About this paper
Cite this paper
Lee, J., Kim, G., Jang, D., Park, S. (2014). A Novel Method for Technology Forecasting Based on Patent Documents. In: Lee, K., Park, SJ., Lee, JH. (eds) Soft Computing in Big Data Processing. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 271. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-05527-5_9
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-05527-5_9
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-05526-8
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-05527-5
eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)