by Daan van Schalkwijk
A squire teaches the High King
statistics to overcome a crisis of confidence, at risk to his own life.
Just when
the High King is at loss in whom to confide, a squire offers to solve his
problems by teaching him about confidence intervals; but when the King's senior
sage protests, he must learn to see what statistics can and cannot do, or the
sage will have him on the gallows.
Student Quotes
"The poem is just great. What a
good initiative to describe something which students usually find not so
interesting in a fun way."
Jovana
Karanovic, student at Amsterdam
University College
"I'm glad I returned to read the
poem more carefully. I like how it speaks to the limits of quantitative
reasoning at its conclusion."
Megan
Myles, exchange student at Amsterdam University College
from Quest University , Canada
"I believe the poem is great, and
it is quite impressive the fact that it took you so little to write it! The
language is really convincing, and I love the last paragraph, it is really a
nice conclusion!"
Kalliopi
Theocharidou, student at AUC.
"For the High King the courageous
squire turns on the lights,
For students, statistics is elevated to epic heights"
For students, statistics is elevated to epic heights"
Job Zegers,
student at AUC.
What's in it for... students of statistics?
A fun way
of seeing whether you have understood the concept of confidence intervals, its
advantages and limitations.
What's in it for... Policy makers and managers?
A timely
reflection on the use of quantitative data in policy and management.
What's in it for... Everyone?
An epic
poem with a short enjoyable adventure that will take you back to heraldic
times, and help you polish your command of the English language!
Copyright
2012 Daan van Schalkwijk
Cover
design by Richard Prins and Daan van Schalkwijk
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source attribution (Both images were modified)
Crown
image - released under a Creative Commons - Attribution ShareAlike 2.0 license
- Image by Sodacan on commons.wikimedia.org
Smiling
boy picture - released under a Creative Commons - Attribution NonCommercial
ShareAlike 2.0 license - Picture by Espen Faugstad (noxstar) on flickr.com
Some seldom used English terms
Candid:
frank and honest
Canny:
shrewd and careful
Contention: assertion made in an argument
Expound:
explain or make something clear by giving details
Gauge:
measure; make a judgment about
May
chance be:
may happen to be
Ordain:
order or command
Sage:
very wise man
Stout:
determined, brave, and resolute
Squire:
Young man who was a knight's attendant until he himself became a knight.
Valiant:
brave or determined
Mostly from 'Oxford
Confidence Interval - an Epic Poem
For my Basic Research Methods and Statistics I
students, at Amsterdam
University College
'My dearest people,
oh my people'
The High King sighed in his high hall,
'Oh, how my heart desires to know you,
But could I count you? Not at all!'
The High King sighed in his high hall,
'Oh, how my heart desires to know you,
But could I count you? Not at all!'
'So I have sent for
sage and wizard,
To tell me how to serve you best.
But do my confidence they merit?
Oh my poor heart won't give me rest.'
To tell me how to serve you best.
But do my confidence they merit?
Oh my poor heart won't give me rest.'
'Oh Sire, Sire' cried
a squire,
-Was sternly told to keep his still-,
But he went on, 'Thy need, so dire,
I can alleviate; I will!'
-Was sternly told to keep his still-,
But he went on, 'Thy need, so dire,
I can alleviate; I will!'
'Then let him speak'
declared the High King,
A kindly smile shone in his eyes,
'For the advice this lad will offer,
May chance be canny, if not wise.'
A kindly smile shone in his eyes,
'For the advice this lad will offer,
May chance be canny, if not wise.'
'With your
permission, Royal Highness'
Up stepped the squire, with rev'rend bow,
'If it be confidence thy seeking,
I can provide it, I know how.'
Up stepped the squire, with rev'rend bow,
'If it be confidence thy seeking,
I can provide it, I know how.'
'A valiant promise,
master squire,
Then let us have it, we're all ears.'
A hidden grin ran through the courtiers,
But our stout squire knew no fears.
Then let us have it, we're all ears.'
A hidden grin ran through the courtiers,
But our stout squire knew no fears.
'Then well, for
starters, take a sample,
Take it as random as one can,
From all the people in thy country,
May they be woman, child, or man.'
Take it as random as one can,
From all the people in thy country,
May they be woman, child, or man.'
'Then from the
sample, we must measure,
Whichever size thou longst to know.
It could be tallness, wideness, deepness,
Strength of arm or width of bow.
Whichever size thou longst to know.
It could be tallness, wideness, deepness,
Strength of arm or width of bow.
'And now the trick,
your Royal Highness,
That thee will grant thy dream so dear:
It from the averaged sample measure,
Will know your people without fear.'
That thee will grant thy dream so dear:
It from the averaged sample measure,
Will know your people without fear.'
'I do object, your
Royal Highness'
Cried out the kingdom's senior sage,
'What madness does this scoundrel tell us,
So hot of blood and young of age?'
Cried out the kingdom's senior sage,
'What madness does this scoundrel tell us,
So hot of blood and young of age?'
'Have patience, patience,
wise advisor,
Let now the young man prove his claim.'
'Well this is certainly unheard of,'
The sage then muttered, 'on my fame.'
Let now the young man prove his claim.'
'Well this is certainly unheard of,'
The sage then muttered, 'on my fame.'
'Your Royal Highness,'
said the squire,
'Let me then liberally expound,
Confiding in your royal mercy,
The one solution I have found. . .
'Let me then liberally expound,
Confiding in your royal mercy,
The one solution I have found. . .
'The central claim of
my contention:
If now large samples one would make,
Then many means would form a bell curve,
Your people's mean the top would take.
If now large samples one would make,
Then many means would form a bell curve,
Your people's mean the top would take.
'If one now has a
single sample,
And wants with confidence to say,
Oh, where the people's mean is lying:
It is surprising, but one may.
And wants with confidence to say,
Oh, where the people's mean is lying:
It is surprising, but one may.
'Say one wants
confidence at level,
Of even ninety-five percent,
Then one finds all thy people's values,
One may, from sample's worth, defend.
Of even ninety-five percent,
Then one finds all thy people's values,
One may, from sample's worth, defend.
The high- and lowest
of these values,
Give us a bell-curve that lies so:
The sample mean does mark the outskirts,
With two-and-half percent to go.
Give us a bell-curve that lies so:
The sample mean does mark the outskirts,
With two-and-half percent to go.
'And thus thou hast a
range of values,
That people's value doth contain,
In ninety-five percent of times when
Thou this procedure wouldst ordain.'
That people's value doth contain,
In ninety-five percent of times when
Thou this procedure wouldst ordain.'
'Onto the gallows'
cried the sage then,
The anger flushing in his face,
'What blackest magic he expoundeth,
He rings a bell and lifts a haze.
The anger flushing in his face,
'What blackest magic he expoundeth,
He rings a bell and lifts a haze.
'Sire even if you
found it candid,'
Went on the sage in breathless tone,
'For all his valiant youthful promise,
Thy getst thy people's mean alone.'
Went on the sage in breathless tone,
'For all his valiant youthful promise,
Thy getst thy people's mean alone.'
'Beloved High King'
cried the squire,
His features raging with alarm.
But now the High King would have silence:
He raised majestically his arm.
His features raging with alarm.
But now the High King would have silence:
He raised majestically his arm.
'My sage, thy words
have proved thy wisdom
When even angered, all the same,
But then for thy request to hang him:
Well, oh my good Lord, oh for shame!
When even angered, all the same,
But then for thy request to hang him:
Well, oh my good Lord, oh for shame!
'For indeed the boy
proved canny,
Though perchance he be not wise.
And though there be some boastful promise,
There's loyal service in his eyes.'
Though perchance he be not wise.
And though there be some boastful promise,
There's loyal service in his eyes.'
'And it's just this,
young master squire,
That all your measures do not show:
For I would gauge my people's spirit,
Their faithful loyalty to know.
That all your measures do not show:
For I would gauge my people's spirit,
Their faithful loyalty to know.
'And therefore, for
your boastful promise,
You from your squire state I'll fling.
For your intelligence and daring,
You're now the student of the King.
You from your squire state I'll fling.
For your intelligence and daring,
You're now the student of the King.
'Full well I
recognise the promise,
Held by the method that you show.
But it requires a humble spirit,
Its strengths and weaknesses to know.
Held by the method that you show.
But it requires a humble spirit,
Its strengths and weaknesses to know.
'So study numbers,
nice and certain,
Of people's money, strength, and arts.
But let all hearers now remember:
The King cares more for people's hearts!'
Of people's money, strength, and arts.
But let all hearers now remember:
The King cares more for people's hearts!'
Daan van Schalkwijk,
11th of November 2012
11th of November 2012
Questions to aid reflection
These questions can
be used for private reflection, but are perhaps most effective as discussion
questions in a seminar or in an in-class discussion.
For statistics students
Could you reproduce
in your own words the squire's explanation on the construction and
interpretation of confidence intervals? Do you follow what he says?
The King remarks that
the sage has spoken wisely, except for his condemnation of the squire. Do you
agree with the sage? Is it true that a confidence interval only gives
information about the population's mean, or is there more to it? What valid
point does the sage's position imply?
The King's final
words point towards the strengths and weaknesses of statistics. How would you
formulate the strengths of statistical theory, and how would you formulate its
limits?
For policy makers and managers
Policy and management
are nowadays mostly evaluated on to what extent certain quantitative targets
have been reached. In contrast, the poem starts with the King's desire to get
to know his people. Is the King's desire therefore archaic? How do you see the
relationship between the 'hard' targets and the 'soft' people management in
your daily practice?
The sage in this tale
is afraid of being ousted by the force of the squire's quantative methods. What
is the role of listening to the advice of experienced people versus quantative
indicators in policy or management decision making in your daily practice? Are
you happy with the current balance?
The king states that
he 'cares more for people's hearts' and evidently values their faithfulness to
his person highly. Is your personal relationship with the people you lead or
manage of importance to you? Is it something you give enough attention to?
###
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For Dutch citizens who would like to make a tax-deductible gift, they can transfer to account nr 6494736, t.n.v. Stichting De Oude Gracht,Amsterdam USA
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Resources for Teachers / Seminars
Hand-out versions of the poem are available in pdf format.
For statistics students: A4 (http://goo.gl/VnS0i), US letter (http://goo.gl/IcsGB)
For management seminars: A4 (http://goo.gl/o86bR), US letter (http://goo.gl/ih0Vs)
For management seminars: A4 (http://goo.gl/o86bR), US letter (http://goo.gl/ih0Vs)
About the Author
Daan van Schalkwijk teaches Basic Research
Methods and Statistics I, as well as a course on Systems Biology, at Amsterdam University College Leidenhoven
College ,
a small-scale collegiate hall of residence in Amsterdam
I wrote this poem because I want to
inspire my students. Statistics is now an ordinary part of everyday life, but
that was not always so, as the strangeness of statistics at a medieval royal
court helps you realize. That makes us grateful to have such a great tool
available. At the same time, the King reminds us of aspects of our humanity
that may have become undervalued because of our insistence on the importance of
quantitative data. So while the King may learn from us, we may also learn from
him...
Through the Harambee fundraising drive
I both hope that the poem may inspire people beyond my classroom, and that
together we may support education in Africa .
It would be great to give Harambee a well-deserved royal gift!
Where to find me online
Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/index.php#!/d.b.vanschalkwijk
Smashwords: https://www.smashwords.com/profile/view/dvschal
My blog: http://www.scienceandbeyond.blogspot.nl/ (English)
http://gedachtevandedag.blogspot.nl/ (Dutch)
Smashwords: https://www.smashwords.com/profile/view/dvschal
My blog: http://www.scienceandbeyond.blogspot.nl/ (English)
http://gedachtevandedag.blogspot.nl/ (Dutch)
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