Colorado Republicans believe they have their strongest top-of-ticket in a decade, thanks to the Oct. 3 presidential debate that revived GOP enthusiasm nationwide but particularly across the state and in crucial suburban counties.
Republicans hope that excitement translates down the ballot to legislative and congressional contests.
“A lot of these races are going to be decided by just a few percentage points, races that I think will benefit from our top-of-the-ticket coattails,” said state Sen. Greg Brophy of Wray. “We’ll know on Tuesday.”
Pundits gave Republican challenger Mitt Romney the win over President Barack Obama in the University of Denver debate. The next day, volunteers flooded Romney’s campaign office in Jefferson County, and the trend has continued across the state.
“After billions of dollars being spent on both sides, all those primaries and caucuses and hundreds of rallies, what this race boils down to is what voters saw for 90 minutes,” said former Colorado GOP chairman Dick Wadhams.
“Romney was languishing before that. Since Oct. 3, he has been a huge asset to Republicans up and down the ticket.”
But Colorado Democrats predict Republicans won’t be so excited once election results roll in.
“It’s 2 a.m., and Mitt Romney and his friends are crowing like a bunch of barnyard roosters,” said Rick Palacio, chairman of the Colorado Democratic Party. “As we all know, talk is cheap. Democrats have mobilized the largest grassroots, volunteer effort in history to re-elect President Obama and Democrats up and down the ballot.”
But some Democrats privately grouse that Obama’s performance in his final two debates has not been able to stop the momentum in Colorado after the first encounter.
Most Republicans contend that the last time the GOP top of the ticket in Colorado was this strong was in 2002, when Gov. Bill Owens and U.S. Sen. Wayne Allard ran for re-election.
Their victories filtered down the ticket: Republican Bob Beauprez of Arvada won the new 7th Congressional District by 121 points over Democrat Mike Feeley of Lakewood, and Republicans won back the state Senate, which they had lost in a shocker in 2000.
“The strength at the top of the ticket is always a factor,” Feeley said.
Alan Philp, who served as executive director of the Colorado GOP that year, said having a “very articulate defender of Republican principles” makes a difference. Colorado Republicans had that in 2002, and they have it again this year with Romney and vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan, Philp said.
Although two years ago was a national GOP wave year, in Colorado the top races — for governor and U.S. senator — turned out to be a Republican car wreck.
A plagiarism scandal sidelined former Congressman Scott McInnis in the governor’s contest, and GOP nominee Dan Maes turned out to have a checkered financial and work history. Republican Senate candidate Ken Buck lost to Democrat Michael Bennet after being tripped up by social comments.
Buck lost the race in the suburbs, particularly Arapahoe and Jefferson counties, where unaffiliated and Republican women gave Bennet his victory.
Wadhams believes that the debate performance gave those same women “the reason they’ve been looking for to vote for Mitt Romney.”
He expects that to have an impact on legislative races, particularly in Arapahoe and Jefferson counties, home to the majority of the most contested legislative races.
“Does that mean if Romney carried Arapahoe or Jefferson counties that we’re going to win all those seats?” Wadhams said. “Probably not. But there’s a chance to win those seats now. There wasn’t before Oct. 3.”
