In 1996, Colorado was one of 19 mostly Southern and Western states to back underdog Republican Bob Dole in his overwhelming electoral loss to incumbent President Bill Clinton.
On Tuesday, for the first time since supporting Franklin D. Roosevelt’s bid for a second term in 1936, the same state joined Democrats in the rust belt, northeast and far west to back a Democratic incumbent for re-election.
How did Colorado go from the reddest of red to consecutively blue so quickly?
The answer may lie partly in the state’s changing demography.
Colorado’s Latino population has grown 42 percent in 12 years, helping to transform once-reliable Republican areas into swing counties now leaning toward Democrats.
Those same demographic shifts in GOP strongholds such as El Paso County, have helped Democrats narrow their defeat margins in counties they can’t win, while forcing Republicans to defend places once considered a sure thing.
“Demographics are destiny. It’s true for Colorado,” said Jill Hanauer, president of Project New America, a Denver-based Democratic research firm.
In Arapahoe County, the Latino population increased 82 percent from 2000 to 2010, according to the Colorado Department of Local Affairs. The county that backed Republican George W. Bush by 15,154 votes 12 years ago, on Tuesday supported Barack Obama over Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney by 21,201 votes.
In other words, Democrats saw a 36,355-vote shift to their presidential candidate.
These trends from 2000 to 2012 are exhibited in other key Colorado counties:
• Jefferson County, where the Latino population has increased 46 percent, Democrats saw a 32,277-vote shift to their candidate
• Larimer County had a 52 percent increase in Latinos, and Democrats saw a 25,874-vote shift
• Adams County saw a 63 percent increase in Latino residents, and Democrats had a 17,741-vote shift
Democrats clearly took advantage of these shifting demographics: Obama staffers say they registered 71,000 new Latinos since 2008 and another 24,400 African-Americans.
The Obama campaign’s early ground game in Colorado homed in on getting new people registered to vote. After all those new people were registered, canvassers and volunteers circled back to neighborhoods all over the state that traditionally had low voter turnout and knocked on doors.
“It was among the most sophisticated efforts in the history of presidential elections,” said Colorado Obama spokesman Michael Amodeo.
In Colorado, as in Florida and Nevada, Latino political participation continues to swell.
From 2004 to 2012, Latinos have jumped from 8 to 14 percent of the electorate in Colorado, according to the Pew Hispanic Center.
Although every pollster and advocacy expert notes that large voting groups are not single-issue voters, Lorena Garcia, executive director of the Colorado Organization for Latina Opportunity and Reproductive Rights, said Obama’s messaging on affordable health care and accessibility moved Latino voters.
“They understood that Obama wanted to make health insurance more accessible for low-income people,” she said. “When the Latino community heard this, they were able to make their decision on a candidate who can best promote that.”
Also, the president’s directive to allow young undocumented immigrants to apply for “deferred” deportation and work permits helped spark enthusiasm in the Latino community, Garcia said.
In conservative El Paso County, whose Latino population increased 60 percent from 2000 to 2010, Republicans are still in control, but votes for the Democratic presidential candidate have shifted by 7,665 votes.
Douglas County, also a GOP stronghold, saw a 140 percent jump in its Latino population. But Democrats there have not made any inroads yet.
Karen E. Crummy: 303-954-1594, kcrummy@denverpost.com or twitter.com/karencrummy
