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What?We love the World Cup and wish to use this "problem solving technique" to approximate the probability of certain outcomes by running multiple trial runs, called simulations, using random variables.
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How?App Script In Google Sheet (and later Node.js on Compute Engine)
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Our ProblemWhich team will win this world cup? Barzil without Neymar? Lionel Messi?
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DefinitionMonte Carlo simulations tend to follow a particular pattern
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1. Define a domain of possible inputs.
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2. Generate inputs randomly from a probability distribution over the domain.
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3. Perform a deterministic computation on the inputs.
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4. Aggregate the results.
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Read morehttp://greenido.wordpress.com/2014/07/07/try-to-predict-the-world-cup-with-monte-carlo-simulation/
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Resources
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Diagramhttp://goo.gl/NV2OLc
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State and other predictionshttp://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/world-cup/
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What is monte carlowikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_method
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Misc
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The codeClick on Tools -> Script Editor in order to see the code
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Now click on 'Games1' Sheet and run the simulator from the top-right menu
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