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Microsoft Surface 2 And Windows 8 Slates Poised To Take Android Market Share In Q4

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A few weeks ago I reported from the Microsoft Surface 2 and Surface Pro 2 event in New York and at the time came away impressed with what the company had showcased in the Big Apple (no pun intended). Since then, Microsoft's new Surface offering has become available at retail and Apple has tipped their hand on the next generation iPad Air. As we roll into the Q4 holiday shopping home stretch, it appears to me that Google , actually, might have some work to do, at least in the full sized tablet space.

In the burgeoning 7 and 8-inch tablet segment, Google's Nexus 7 and Amazon's Kindle Fire HDX are positioned well versus higher priced competitors like the iPad Mini but as far as premium 10-inch slates go, the Surface 2 looks strong. Let's get something out of the way early here though. Apple will definitely kill it with the iPad Air. Its super thin design, high res Retina Display and 64-bit A7 processor will be more than enough to conjure up sugar plums for folks already entrenched in the Apple ecosystem. And  Apple's iPad brand draw alone will be more than enough to sell iPad Airs like hotcakes.  However, for consumers on the fence, looking at tablets for the first time or with aging slates to replace, the Surface 2 with its familiar Windows brand will definitely merit a double-take from holiday shoppers.

At a high level, consider the A/B comparison you can make between Surface 2 and the iPad Air.  For one, the new iPad is priced at $599 for a 32GB WiFi version or $499 for the 16GB variant.  You get Apple's iOS 7, its powerful A7 SoC, its gorgeous Retina Display and an App store jam-packed with software, but this is all at a significant premium compared to the Surface 2.  Surface 2, conversely, retails for $449 for a 32GB model with a high res 1920X1080 display, Microsoft Office 2013 RT (everybody and their Grandmother uses Office), 200GB of MS SkyDrive storage for 2 years and 1 year of free Skype calling and WiFi Hot Spot access.  Surface 2 is also plenty fast, with NVIDIA's Tegra 4 ARM-based processor on board and its 72-core NVIDIA GeForce graphics engine. No matter what your manufacturer of choice is, you have to admit, comparatively, that's a lot of value for a full $150 less than the new 32GB iPad Air. But Microsoft will likely not bite into Apple's share that much, I think the bite will come at the expense of Android and Google.

Again, the notion is mainstream familiarity here.  When you pick up a Windows 8.1 tablet for the first time, regardless of whether it's Windows 8.1 RT or full Windows 8 Pro, it's a very responsive, intuitive experience.  Even unfamiliar users will get the gist pretty quickly once a few gestures are understood.  From their it's all about brand equity and the platform.  You've got a Windows device that works with one of the most popular business software suites in the world - Microsoft Office.  Surface 2 also has a standard USB 3 port and a microSD card slot, which folks will immediately appreciate for transferring files from work or school, as well as pictures, music, movie clips and other media.  Yes, that also adds some thickness to the device and it is heavier than most tablets at 1.5 lbs, but for a 10-inch slate this isn't as much of a concern.  The form factor carries it well enough.

Android devices, on the other hand, don't always have the same sort of familiarity for everyone in the mainstream.  Yes, there's a huge install base of Android smartphones out there but a 10-inch tablet is a computing accessory much more so than anything with a 4.5 to 5-inch screen.  I think that's where Microsoft, with some clever marketing that we're beginning to see on TV and the Internet, could really capitalize.  It's about filling the gap between a desktop or notebook and that smaller smartphone screen.  Android tablets can do this but there's likely still a disconnect from either Mac or Windows somewhere in the chain for most people.  Google is still fleshing out Chrome OS but they're light years behind Microsoft and Apple obviously.  Windows tablets, like the iPad for Apple, bridge the device transition gap cleanly; yes, even Windows RT.  And the Microsoft Store is gaining critical mass now finally, with more apps and an overall goal of one store for all platforms.

Not to mention beyond just Surface 2, there are a myriad of OEMs lining up Windows 8.1 tablets, like the Intel Bay Trail-powered $349 ASUS Transformer Book T100TA for example, which will address lower price points and smaller form-factors.

Microsoft reported record earnings for their recent fiscal quarter close.  If I were a betting man (and I'm totally not, nor do I hold a position in MSFT, GOOG or AAPL), I'd say that trend will continue for a bit.

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