I completely understand why
Actually, DreamWorks Animation should know this as well as anyone. Back in May of 2004, Shrek 2 debuted with a $128 million five-day weekend and then followed that up with a then-record second weekend gross of $72m over Memorial Day. But not to be outdone, 20th Century
Five years ago, James Cameron released a small-scale art house drama about the abuse of indigenous people for the exploitation of their natural resources. The 20th Century Fox film kinda caught on as a cult favorite of sorts, but that didn't stop Warner Bros.' Sherlock Holmes from racking up a $62m Christmas weekend debut frame which eventually led to a $209m domestic and $524m worldwide total. Also opening that Christmas was Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakel (which was released by Fox as a safety net of sorts in case Avatar tanked). That would-be Oscar bait drama opened with a $48m debut weekend, which led to a $219m domestic and $449m worldwide total. Those two films opening in the shadow of James Cameron's 3D spectacular stand as the second and fourth-biggest domestic grossers to never top the weekend box office.
Speaking of James Cameron, Titanic opened head-to-head with Tomorrow Never Dies. So what happened to the James Bond adventure that opened against Titanic? It flopped and effectively ended the 007 franchise. It opened with $25 million (compared to Titanic's $28m debut and on par with the $26m debut of GoldenEye) and went on to earn $125m domestic, which was $20m more than GoldenEye and a 5x weekend-to-domestic final multiplier, still a record multiplier for any remotely modern James Bond picture. There are also cases where one big movie did real damage to the competition. The Avengers drowned out the competition for the first couple weeks of its run, while The Dark Knight was popular enough after its opening weekend to put a real hurt on The X-Files: I Want to Believe and The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor during its few weeks of release (and once again let us light a Kaddish candle for Hellboy II). But, without discounting the oxygen-sucking potential of Star Wars 7, there is room in the marketplace, especially the last couple weeks of the year, for more than one major film.
People of all ages are going to want to go to the movies over the holiday season, and not everyone is going to want to see Star Wars: The Force Awakens for a first, second, or third time. We will see if Paramount (Viacom Inc.) also chooses to move Mission: Impossible V from its December 25th date to elsewhere on the calendar, but I hope they don't. First of all, I want more to see over December 2015 than just Star Wars and limited-release Oscar debuts. Secondly, the notion that one film is so all-powerful that it can destroy everything in its path, even other so-called big movies, isn't always supported by history and can backfire. Keeping the field clear for the so-called 800lb gorilla can be a problem if the would-be titan fails to deliver.
If for whatever reason Star Wars: The Force Awakens under-performs (which I suppose means it plays more like Attack of the Clones as opposed to The Phantom Menace), and it's the only thing playing over the holiday of box office note, well that's partially how we end up with "Slump!" talk in terms of overall cumulative box office. The studios stayed well out of the way of Transformers: Age of Extinction this year, a strategy that backfired when the film didn't quite play as well as its predecessors and there was nothing else of its ilk to pick up the slack in the weeks before and after its domestic release.
I'm not presuming that Star Wars: The Force Awakens will under-perform (whatever that might be for such a title) or that DreamWorks was wrong to move Kung Fu Panda 3 (although I question moving to the weekend before Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice which feels like an "out of the frying pan and into the fire" situation). DreamWorks was in a tricky position and I'm not sure there was a "right" call to be made. But the notion that Star Wars: The Force Awakens will suck all of the box office oxygen from the room over the last two weeks of the year is one not necessarily supported by history. Kung Fu Panda 3 did't have to top the box office over its opening weekend or even end up on par with Star Wars 7 in terms of domestic and global box office. It just had to perform in line with reasonable expectations for the animated action comedy sequel.
Keeping Kung Fu Panda 3 in the same post-Star Wars release date was indeed an awful risk, but it could-well have worked. In all honesty, I mostly disapprove of this date change is because I was more excited for Kung Fu Panda 3 than for Star Wars VII. That's not a knock on Star Wars, I just really loved Kung Fu Panda 2 (it was my favorite film of 2011) and the thought of waiting an additional three months to see what Jennifer Yuh Nelson and company have whipped up pains me. So now I guess I can proclaim that I'm more excited for Kung Fu Panda 3 than Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice. Although I'm hoping all of the above will be prime examples of cinematic awesomeness.
