Thread: DAoC population change, realm balance, and class balance, year to date (Apr 2016 - Mar 2017)

Thanks to @Vanesyra for pulling all the data over at http://sc.excidio.net/herald/.

All figures include data pulled from level 50 characters only that have earned at least 1 realm point in any given week. Level 1-49 characters in a given week are not included in the data below.

Main data

• The number of level 50 characters active in RvR on a weekly basis has dropped by 40.3% in the year from April 2016 to March 2017. Hibernia has suffered the steepest drop in active RvR population, with Albion coming out best.
• Midgard still remains the most populated realm using the same criteria (level 50 character active in RvR) at the end of the year. Throughout the year, Midgard has held 36.5% of all characters (Albion-32.6%, Hibernia-30.9%).
• Albion is performing best in RvR in recent weeks when compared to other realms, bucking a trend dominated by Midgard since I began taking the data. In the most recent week, Albion took 37.6% of deathblows, Midgard 31.4%, and Hibernia 30.9%.

Class balance (as measured by RPs earned) has been separated by realm, as dynamic population bonuses make it impossible to determine classes across realms in terms of RPs earned.

• Albion has seen significant changes in spread of RPs across classes within the realm, with large swings in favour of Necromancers and Infiltrators (with Minstrels losing out most over the year - albeit from a very good place one year ago). Minstrels are still the 6th best performing class (of 15).
• Albion classes have become more balanced relative to each other, shifting from a std deviation in share of RPs by class from 4.3 to 3.1 percentage points over the year.
• Albion classes have shifted the most of all realms in the last year in terms of share of RPs earned today by each class compared to a year ago, by an average of 2.9 percentage points.

• Hibernia has seen much less change across classes, with Enchanters by far benefitting the most from game changes. On the other end, Vampiirs have suffered far more than any other class.
• The distribution of RPs among Hibernian classes has not been increased or decreased relative to each other, with the standard deviation of share of RPs by class today remaining at 3.1 percentage points when compared to a year ago - i.e., no change in balance or extremes.
• Hibernian classes have also seen little change over the year, shifting by an average of 1.2 percentage points in terms of RPs earned by each class today compared to a year ago.

• Midgard has also seen quite a lot of change among classes in terms of RPs earned relative to a year ago. Bonedancers, Shadowblades, and Spiritmasters have won out. On the other end, Skalds, Thanes, Valkyries, and Warlocks are all faring worse when compared to other Midgard classes.
• The distribution of RPs between classes in Midgard has remained roughly similar, although there is slightly less variance compared to a year ago (4.0 percentage points compared to 4.3 one year ago).
• The average change in share of RPs earned by each class over the year is fairly large at 2.4 percentage points, suggesting that Midgard classes have been affected by cumulative changes in a similar fashion to Albion.

Graphs and data

Population (number of level 50 characters earning at least 1 RP in any given week)











Kills and deathblows









Albion class performance - April 2016-March 2017





Hibernian class performance - April 2016-March 2017





Midgard class performance - April 2016-March 2017





Thanks all - happy to entertain reasonable discussion - (would prefer conspiracy post-fact/truther theories to not come up).

such pretty colors

Very interesting figures. Nicely done.

Originally Posted by Simon

Midgard still remains the most populated realm using the same criteria (level 50 character active in RvR) at the end of the year. Throughout the year, Midgard has held 36.5% of all characters (Albion-32.6%, Hibernia-30.9%).

I'm sorry but the overwhelming chorus of cries from Midgard would seem to disagree with you. Surely these figures aren't accurate because if they were that would mean Mids are being either deliberately or subconsciously overdramatic and I refuse to believe they are such individuals. #FakeNews

Originally Posted by Randomtruth

Originally Posted by Sovereign

Originally Posted by Simon

Midgard still remains the most populated realm using the same criteria (level 50 character active in RvR) at the end of the year. Throughout the year, Midgard has held 36.5% of all characters (Albion-32.6%, Hibernia-30.9%).

I'm sorry but the overwhelming chorus of cries from Midgard would seem to disagree with you. Surely these figures aren't accurate because if they were that would mean Mids are being either deliberately or subconsciously overdramatic and I refuse to believe they are such individuals. #FakeNews

As usual you have zero idea what these numbers mean or how to interpret them ---- stats are wasted on people who have no idea how to use them.

And here I was defending you guys. I realize the releasing of hard numbers and facts might be a cause for a kerfuffle, especially when it directly contradicts a religiously touted talking point but I'm sure after a short time you'll be able to spin the facts to suit your narrative. Best of luck!

Originally Posted by Xarraan

Originally Posted by Sovereign

Originally Posted by Simon

Midgard still remains the most populated realm using the same criteria (level 50 character active in RvR) at the end of the year. Throughout the year, Midgard has held 36.5% of all characters (Albion-32.6%, Hibernia-30.9%).

I'm sorry but the overwhelming chorus of cries from Midgard would seem to disagree with you. Surely these figures aren't accurate because if they were that would mean Mids are being either deliberately or subconsciously overdramatic and I refuse to believe they are such individuals. #FakeNews

So you mean when the mids cry the Alb BG has 200 and the mids have 50 and only have a 10% RP bonus they are lying? No I just can't #FakeNews

Sent from my SM-G930T using Tapatalk

These are weekly totals. They do not reflect what is happening during particular play times.

For example, Midgard may dominate during EU prime time, but find themselves outnumbered during US prime time by Albion.

These figures are just the overall total of all characters logged in over a week period (each character can only count once).

Really enjoy these threads, gives me inspiration to become smarter and hopefully one day understand wtf is going on

Thanks Simon.

Originally Posted by Geegee

Really enjoy these threads, gives me inspiration to become smarter and hopefully one day understand wtf is going on

Ilu gg. Xoxoxo

Originally Posted by Xarraan

Originally Posted by Simon

These are weekly totals. They do not reflect what is happening during particular play times.

For example, Midgard may dominate during EU prime time, but find themselves outnumbered during US prime time by Albion.

These figures are just the overall total of all characters logged in over a week period (each character can only count once).

Simon I know that. I was commenting on someone from mid saying they were out numbered the one night by 150 when mid had only a 10% bonus. Mids can't believe their numbers are closer and they just lose and camp Glen all night. So they come up with wild numbers to explain it.

Sent from my SM-G930T using Tapatalk

Realistically, all the realm bonus is is an indication of the amount of people in NF. It doesn't necessarily translate to having a bigger BG. It's entirely possible for a realm to have a larger NF population and a smaller BG compared to a rival realm. So even the population bonus isn't indicative of very much unless it's a huge number like what you see Hibs with during US prime.

That's some depressing reading. It's just going down.

Originally Posted by Everz

That's some depressing reading. It's just going down.

It went up for a week!
Then back down...

Originally Posted by smakadop

Originally Posted by Everz

That's some depressing reading. It's just going down.

It went up for a week!
Then back down...

Indeed!

To lose a third of the rvr pop in a year is some feat.

That's nuts the population has dropped so much over a year. Really hope BS does something else to bring back the population.

Well, since the beginning of the patch desaster last year, the population drops by 40%. But BS continued this patch massaker, one by one.
Its a shame. And they still dont realize it.

And its not any freeshard, its the live server why the folks left ....

40% drop in a 15+ year old game is a staggering/sobering drop in Subs.

I'm optimistic hope they can turn this thing around cause DAOC is the game I love. I've also played a lot less the stealth revamp started everything spiraling let's be real.

What I'm seeing from this is we need more 200% bonus rps look how high October went up and Nov kept some numbers as well. put in a 300% bonus and the subs will flow like wine!

WOW @John_Broadsword

Originally Posted by Kytie

Originally Posted by Dyn-Nothgrim

What I'm seeing from this is we need more 200% bonus rps look how high October went up and Nov kept some numbers as well. put in a 300% bonus and the subs will flow like wine!

Nah, that was the Come back to Camelot Campaign with the free 30 days for returning players + emails etc. Proved that it worked well as a promotional event, the problem seems to be not many that came back stayed, or if they did then 1 old player left for every one that did.

Which is a strong indication that 1.121 and 1.122 were the cause of the population plummet since realistically there was nothing else going on except for a certain free shard, which was not announced until i believe October as actually going live. Sad thing for me is i expected an upturn over the last month due to people realising Flopgard did actually suck and at least some of them would come crawling back here...It's pretty damning when people would rather flat out quit than play the official version, when there was 6k + champing at the bit to get onto a free shard merely 2.5 months ago

I dont understand how everyone thinking [no] was going to flop considering it was up and running for over 10 years or something dumb like that. I'm there because late night population has dwindled to NOTHING. We had a couple nights we couldnt even fill our fg and didnt run into any other fg. After that its not worth playing live anymore. The only time the game had a bump was free/bonus RPs. Because Nov held numbers decently and it wasnt free. I thought that they just had free through Oct not Free 30 days could be wrong. Any way though Dec with no rp bonus and it was a straight drop.

Originally Posted by Kytie

Originally Posted by Dyn-Nothgrim

Originally Posted by Kytie

Originally Posted by Dyn-Nothgrim

What I'm seeing from this is we need more 200% bonus rps look how high October went up and Nov kept some numbers as well. put in a 300% bonus and the subs will flow like wine!

Nah, that was the Come back to Camelot Campaign with the free 30 days for returning players + emails etc. Proved that it worked well as a promotional event, the problem seems to be not many that came back stayed, or if they did then 1 old player left for every one that did.

Which is a strong indication that 1.121 and 1.122 were the cause of the population plummet since realistically there was nothing else going on except for a certain free shard, which was not announced until i believe October as actually going live. Sad thing for me is i expected an upturn over the last month due to people realising Flopgard did actually suck and at least some of them would come crawling back here...It's pretty damning when people would rather flat out quit than play the official version, when there was 6k + champing at the bit to get onto a free shard merely 2.5 months ago

I dont understand how everyone thinking [no] was going to flop considering it was up and running for over 10 years or something dumb like that. I'm there because late night population has dwindled to NOTHING. We had a couple nights we couldnt even fill our fg and didnt run into any other fg. After that its not worth playing live anymore. The only time the game had a bump was free/bonus RPs. Because Nov held numbers decently and it wasnt free. I thought that they just had free through Oct not Free 30 days could be wrong. Any way though Dec with no rp bonus and it was a straight drop.

October was the campaign month, anyone coming back during October got 30 days, so it effectively lasted 2 months because you could come back right at the end of October and still get 30 days, covering most or all of November.

They should just do that again .

Originally Posted by Dyn-Nothgrim

Originally Posted by Kytie

Originally Posted by Dyn-Nothgrim

What I'm seeing from this is we need more 200% bonus rps look how high October went up and Nov kept some numbers as well. put in a 300% bonus and the subs will flow like wine!

Nah, that was the Come back to Camelot Campaign with the free 30 days for returning players + emails etc. Proved that it worked well as a promotional event, the problem seems to be not many that came back stayed, or if they did then 1 old player left for every one that did.

Which is a strong indication that 1.121 and 1.122 were the cause of the population plummet since realistically there was nothing else going on except for a certain free shard, which was not announced until i believe October as actually going live. Sad thing for me is i expected an upturn over the last month due to people realising Flopgard did actually suck and at least some of them would come crawling back here...It's pretty damning when people would rather flat out quit than play the official version, when there was 6k + champing at the bit to get onto a free shard merely 2.5 months ago

I dont understand how everyone thinking [no] was going to flop considering it was up and running for over 10 years or something dumb like that. I'm there because late night population has dwindled to NOTHING. We had a couple nights we couldnt even fill our fg and didnt run into any other fg. After that its not worth playing live anymore. The only time the game had a bump was free/bonus RPs. Because Nov held numbers decently and it wasnt free. I thought that they just had free through Oct not Free 30 days could be wrong. Any way though Dec with no rp bonus and it was a straight drop.

or just try to run smallman if you arent running into other 8mans I dont see a reason why you should run 8

Originally Posted by Vaako

Originally Posted by Dyn-Nothgrim

Originally Posted by Kytie

Originally Posted by Dyn-Nothgrim

What I'm seeing from this is we need more 200% bonus rps look how high October went up and Nov kept some numbers as well. put in a 300% bonus and the subs will flow like wine!

Nah, that was the Come back to Camelot Campaign with the free 30 days for returning players + emails etc. Proved that it worked well as a promotional event, the problem seems to be not many that came back stayed, or if they did then 1 old player left for every one that did.

Which is a strong indication that 1.121 and 1.122 were the cause of the population plummet since realistically there was nothing else going on except for a certain free shard, which was not announced until i believe October as actually going live. Sad thing for me is i expected an upturn over the last month due to people realising Flopgard did actually suck and at least some of them would come crawling back here...It's pretty damning when people would rather flat out quit than play the official version, when there was 6k + champing at the bit to get onto a free shard merely 2.5 months ago

I dont understand how everyone thinking [no] was going to flop considering it was up and running for over 10 years or something dumb like that. I'm there because late night population has dwindled to NOTHING. We had a couple nights we couldnt even fill our fg and didnt run into any other fg. After that its not worth playing live anymore. The only time the game had a bump was free/bonus RPs. Because Nov held numbers decently and it wasnt free. I thought that they just had free through Oct not Free 30 days could be wrong. Any way though Dec with no rp bonus and it was a straight drop.

or just try to run smallman if you arent running into other 8mans I dont see a reason why you should run 8

Because we have 8 or more people that like to run together. But when we and apparently no one else on the server could field a full group that pretty bad state for my play time.

Originally Posted by Dyn-Nothgrim

Originally Posted by Vaako

Originally Posted by Dyn-Nothgrim

Originally Posted by Kytie

Originally Posted by Dyn-Nothgrim

What I'm seeing from this is we need more 200% bonus rps look how high October went up and Nov kept some numbers as well. put in a 300% bonus and the subs will flow like wine!

Nah, that was the Come back to Camelot Campaign with the free 30 days for returning players + emails etc. Proved that it worked well as a promotional event, the problem seems to be not many that came back stayed, or if they did then 1 old player left for every one that did.

Which is a strong indication that 1.121 and 1.122 were the cause of the population plummet since realistically there was nothing else going on except for a certain free shard, which was not announced until i believe October as actually going live. Sad thing for me is i expected an upturn over the last month due to people realising Flopgard did actually suck and at least some of them would come crawling back here...It's pretty damning when people would rather flat out quit than play the official version, when there was 6k + champing at the bit to get onto a free shard merely 2.5 months ago

I dont understand how everyone thinking [no] was going to flop considering it was up and running for over 10 years or something dumb like that. I'm there because late night population has dwindled to NOTHING. We had a couple nights we couldnt even fill our fg and didnt run into any other fg. After that its not worth playing live anymore. The only time the game had a bump was free/bonus RPs. Because Nov held numbers decently and it wasnt free. I thought that they just had free through Oct not Free 30 days could be wrong. Any way though Dec with no rp bonus and it was a straight drop.

or just try to run smallman if you arent running into other 8mans I dont see a reason why you should run 8

Because we have 8 or more people that like to run together. But when we and apparently no one else on the server could field a full group that pretty bad state for my play time.

reasons like "because we want to play together" is the reason why rvr pop is so bad fgs hunting solos/smallmans because they also like to run together and they dont want to smallman they want easy rps then if they still continue to run 8 without the action for it, end of story is action is dwindling even more then because those which arent afraid to run smallman/solo are tired of donating the few hours they can play

So.... Character pop dropped from 9000 to 5500 in 12 months. Game will be dead by the summer of 2018.

Over to you broadsword. No pressure.

Originally Posted by Vaako

Originally Posted by Dyn-Nothgrim

Because we have 8 or more people that like to run together. But when we and apparently no one else on the server could field a full group that pretty bad state for my play time.

reasons like "because we want to play together" is the reason why rvr pop is so bad fgs hunting solos/smallmans because they also like to run together and they dont want to smallman they want easy rps then if they still continue to run 8 without the action for it, end of story is action is dwindling even more then because those which arent afraid to run smallman/solo are tired of donating the few hours they can play

I can assure you the cycle of zergs > 8man > smallman > solo isn't killing DAoC that aspect has been the same since the advent of DAoC. Smaller fish feed the big fish etc.

Competitive PvP-centric mmos have always had a more harsh player base compared to their PvE-centric counterparts, but that isn't the reason for the decline imo.

Coming from a pure solo player my play-style/smallman is alive & well atm because the population is so low many who prefer competitive 8v8 in the US time zones don't have the numbers to fill as Dyn-Nothgrim stated.

From my personal experience the more skilled 8s will always give you pass if they know you're a solo/smallman player who won't add the 8v8s they covet. It's the trashy guilds/region pug 8s that are an issue for people like me. Even though they see me day after day solo & not adding they don't give a $#@! because all they want is the rp.

To expand on my point above from my experience "more skilled" 8s will also log off after a certain amount of time if they can't find other 8s to fight. Again it's the trashy guild/region 8s who will roam endlessly killing solo/smallmans for the rp. Those type of players don't care about a challenge they are only there to boost RR gaining RPs in whatever way possible.

The decline of DAoC over the past year has been a culmination of factors from unpopular patches, Uthgurd, & pve instances that lasted far to long which rewarded valuable templates items that can't be acquired outside of a specific 6 week window.

I'm a firm believer that if Broadsword wouldn't have "shaken things up" as they put it last year & focused more on fixing existing issues with class balance/UI/bugs etc. DAoC would still have a healthy population for all time zones & play styles. Broadsword can claim success of the new patches all they want Simon's charts & just playing on a daily basis show that DAoC is clearly on a decline never seen before. I truly hope they can turn things around, but I'm not optimistic at this point...

Wow that turned out to be a long rant I apologize.

Game died when everyone forgot about having fun and started looking at spreadsheets for character development .

Originally Posted by Vaako

Originally Posted by Dyn-Nothgrim

Originally Posted by Vaako

Originally Posted by Dyn-Nothgrim

Originally Posted by Kytie

Originally Posted by Dyn-Nothgrim

What I'm seeing from this is we need more 200% bonus rps look how high October went up and Nov kept some numbers as well. put in a 300% bonus and the subs will flow like wine!

Nah, that was the Come back to Camelot Campaign with the free 30 days for returning players + emails etc. Proved that it worked well as a promotional event, the problem seems to be not many that came back stayed, or if they did then 1 old player left for every one that did.

Which is a strong indication that 1.121 and 1.122 were the cause of the population plummet since realistically there was nothing else going on except for a certain free shard, which was not announced until i believe October as actually going live. Sad thing for me is i expected an upturn over the last month due to people realising Flopgard did actually suck and at least some of them would come crawling back here...It's pretty damning when people would rather flat out quit than play the official version, when there was 6k + champing at the bit to get onto a free shard merely 2.5 months ago

I dont understand how everyone thinking [no] was going to flop considering it was up and running for over 10 years or something dumb like that. I'm there because late night population has dwindled to NOTHING. We had a couple nights we couldnt even fill our fg and didnt run into any other fg. After that its not worth playing live anymore. The only time the game had a bump was free/bonus RPs. Because Nov held numbers decently and it wasnt free. I thought that they just had free through Oct not Free 30 days could be wrong. Any way though Dec with no rp bonus and it was a straight drop.

or just try to run smallman if you arent running into other 8mans I dont see a reason why you should run 8

Because we have 8 or more people that like to run together. But when we and apparently no one else on the server could field a full group that pretty bad state for my play time.

reasons like "because we want to play together" is the reason why rvr pop is so bad fgs hunting solos/smallmans because they also like to run together and they dont want to smallman they want easy rps then if they still continue to run 8 without the action for it, end of story is action is dwindling even more then because those which arent afraid to run smallman/solo are tired of donating the few hours they can play

I blame the small mans for not grouping up together to fight our fg. 3-4 smallmans get together and can have a fg plus to try and wipe us. How is it our fault?

Originally Posted by Dyn-Nothgrim

I blame the small mans for not grouping up together to fight our fg. 3-4 smallmans get together and can have a fg plus to try and wipe us. How is it our fault?

maybe they cant find people either to grp up? what should they do logg out or donate to you the rest of the day because u dont want to run less than 8 ? also its a pain to grp up with people which either cant play their class and then they leave after 1 wipe, then you also have to go teamspeak to coordinate you dont really need that if you have a good smallman, I for example cant stand TS/Vent I am getting headache from that

also smallman is a lot more fun to play less people to heal/demezz and less stuff you need to pay attention to, I mean I usually tried to fill up the grp if there is a fg out but thats rarely possible

Originally Posted by Hulkamania

Originally Posted by Vaako

Originally Posted by Dyn-Nothgrim

Because we have 8 or more people that like to run together. But when we and apparently no one else on the server could field a full group that pretty bad state for my play time.

reasons like "because we want to play together" is the reason why rvr pop is so bad fgs hunting solos/smallmans because they also like to run together and they dont want to smallman they want easy rps then if they still continue to run 8 without the action for it, end of story is action is dwindling even more then because those which arent afraid to run smallman/solo are tired of donating the few hours they can play

I can assure you the cycle of zergs > 8man > smallman > solo isn't killing DAoC that aspect has been the same since the advent of DAoC. Smaller fish feed the big fish etc.

Competitive PvP-centric mmos have always had a more harsh player base compared to their PvE-centric counterparts, but that isn't the reason for the decline imo.

Coming from a pure solo player my play-style/smallman is alive & well atm because the population is so low many who prefer competitive 8v8 in the US time zones don't have the numbers to fill as Dyn-Nothgrim stated.

From my personal experience the more skilled 8s will always give you pass if they know you're a solo/smallman player who won't add the 8v8s they covet. It's the trashy guilds/region pug 8s that are an issue for people like me. Even though they see me day after day solo & not adding they don't give a $#@! because all they want is the rp.

To expand on my point above from my experience "more skilled" 8s will also log off after a certain amount of time if they can't find other 8s to fight. Again it's the trashy guild/region 8s who will roam endlessly killing solo/smallmans for the rp. Those type of players don't care about a challenge they are only there to boost RR gaining RPs in whatever way possible.

The decline of DAoC over the past year has been a culmination of factors from unpopular patches, Uthgurd, & pve instances that lasted far to long which rewarded valuable templates items that can't be acquired outside of a specific 6 week window.

I'm a firm believer that if Broadsword wouldn't have "shaken things up" as they put it last year & focused more on fixing existing issues with class balance/UI/bugs etc. DAoC would still have a healthy population for all time zones & play styles. Broadsword can claim success of the new patches all they want Simon's charts & just playing on a daily basis show that DAoC is clearly on a decline never seen before. I truly hope they can turn things around, but I'm not optimistic at this point...

Wow that turned out to be a long rant I apologize.

yeah well I was talking about those trashy 8man which dont mind running down lesser numbers the whole day, I am not talking about people which actually look for 8vs8 fights

Dont worry folks.. the Dragon campaign gonna save it all !

Originally Posted by zombie_apocalypse

Originally Posted by Simon

On the other end, Vampiirs have suffered far more than any other class.

are you serious? vamps? come on.

In my post it's in the context of Hibernian classes, based on the RPs earned.

When compared across all classes across all realms, Vampiirs have still seen the biggest relative drop in RPS earned when compared to a year ago - a 67% fall.

The only other classes that come close are Minstrels, Skalds, and Valkyries, who have seen their share of RPs in their realm drop by about 50% compared to a year ago.

Originally Posted by Juki

Originally Posted by Simon

Originally Posted by zombie_apocalypse

Originally Posted by Simon

On the other end, Vampiirs have suffered far more than any other class.

are you serious? vamps? come on.

In my post it's in the context of Hibernian classes, based on the RPs earned.

When compared across all classes across all realms, Vampiirs have still seen the biggest relative drop in RPS earned when compared to a year ago - a 67% fall.

The only other classes that come close are Minstrels, Skalds, and Valkyries, who have seen their share of RPs in their realm drop by about 50% compared to a year ago.

minstrels and skald? so rare, good work Broadsword keep going correct way ....

Well, although they both had a big drop, they mostly came from high places. Minstrels fell from #2 on Albion but are still well above median average - 6/15 (coming after Necromancers, Clerics, Infiltrators, Scouts, and Sorcerers). Skalds dropped a bit harder, falling from 2/14 to 9/14, but still not the worse by any measure. Valkyries are now the worst performing class on Mid (followed closely by Warlock) in terms of RPs earned.

Which reminds me, my Midgard graph omitted Warriors, for whom not much changed. Pasted graph including them below.

As always I really appreciate these in-depth breakdowns keep them coming .

On a side note if I was you I wouldn't respond to half of the plebs who post here. They can't comprehend the data much less offer a valid opinion on the topic.

Originally Posted by Zephead205

As always I really appreciate these in-depth breakdowns keep them coming .

On a side note if I was you I wouldn't respond to half of the plebs who post here. They can't comprehend the data much less offer a valid opinion on the topic.

No problem and I honesty don't mind (trying) to explain the data to people. It's no good if folks don't understand it.