Saturday, November 27, 2010

The VIX/Fear Spike From the Flash Crash Probably Led to the Modest SPX Upside Surprise


If it wasn't for the huge VIX (SPX Volatility Index)/fear spike that resulted from the May 5 Flash Crash, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix, SPX's (S & P 500) Major Upcycle (since 3-6-09's 666.79 Major Cycle Low) probably would have peaked on 4-26-10 at 1219.80 instead of probably peaking at 1227.08 on 11-5-10. From VIX's 5-5-10 cycle low at 23.75 it spiked dramatically to 42.15 on 5-7-10, and, peaked at 48.20 on 5-21-10, more than doubling in about two weeks time.

It Looks Like the Financials (DJUSFN) Peaked in April, see the second Weekly View chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=$djusfn, and, it looks like SPX (S & P 500) peaked on 11-5-10 at 1227.08 vs the 1228.74 Fib target (0.618 retrace of the 1576.09 to 666.79 decline), rolling over dramatically vs the 4-26-10 1219.80 cycle high, see the second Weekly View chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=spx.

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