Will tonight’s Golden Globes turn into the night from Down Under? That’s a distinct possibility, mate.
It turns out that films shot in New Zealand and Australia, and two big stars from the latter, may well walk off with the top prizes in the ceremonies, which will be televised on NBC starting at 8 p.m.
The Globes event has become the favorite warm-up act for the Academy Awards, coming less than a month before nominations are announced.
Never mind that the Globes are less accurate as a predictor of actual Oscar wins than honors handed out by the Screen Actors Guild, the Directors Guild of America and the Producers Guild.
The awards, given by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, consist of choices made largely by professional freeloaders with dubious credentials.
But producers do put on a good show – it’s certainly livelier than the Oscars – even if they also hand out TV awards that are of interest only to the winners. (The Emmys were announced in November.)
The Globes have even shaken off an embarrassing scandal in 1982, when Pia Zadora won a Globe for “Butterfly,” one of the worst movies of the 20th century. This in the wake of a junket sponsored by her then-husband, Meshulam Riklis.
Here’s a look at the races and their Oscar significance:
Best Movie (Drama): The Oscars are shaping up as a duel between “The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of The Ring” and “A Beautiful Mind.” For the Globes, I’d give the edge to the New Zealand-filmed “Rings,” certainly the year’s riskiest big-budget movie. But it will be close over “Beautiful Mind,” which is weathering accusations that it whitewashes the life of its subject, troubled mathematics genius John Nash. Well-regarded “In the Bedroom” could pull an upset, but this indie drama seems too small and spartan to go all the way. Ditto for “The Man Who Wasn’t There” and “Mulholland Drive.”
Best Actress (Drama): Sissy Spacek has swept virtually every acting award handed out so far for her superb performance as a grief-stricken mom in “In the Bedroom,” but I wouldn’t be totally surprised if the HFPA opted instead for Halle Berry’s sizzling work as an executed felon’s widow in “Monster’s Ball.” Nicole Kidman, nominated for “The Others,” is more likely to win in the comedy-musical category for “Moulin Rouge.”
Best Actor (Drama): The race here is between Russell Crowe, superb again in “A Beautiful Mind,” and Denzel Washington, going brilliantly against type as a corrupt cop in “Training Day.” I’d give a slight edge to Crowe, who lost out in last year’s Globes for “Gladiator” to Tom Hanks (“Cast Away”), though Crowe went on to win the Oscar. Along for the ride are three stars of underperforming movies: Will Smith in “Ali,” Kevin Spacey in “The Shipping News” and Billy Bob Thornton in “The Man Who Wasn’t There.”
Best Movie (Musical/Comedy): All signs point to the glitzy musical “Moulin Rouge,” which was filmed in Australia under American sponsorship. Likeliest upsets could come from the hugely popular animated “Shrek” or from Robert Altman’s all-star British ensemble comedy “Gosford Park,” which seems to be picking up Oscar momentum. “Bridget Jones’s Diary” and “Legally Blonde” are also-rans.
Best Actress (Musical/Comedy): If the foreign press can honor Madonna for “Evita,” they certainly can acknowledge Nicole Kidman for playing a courtesan dying of consumption in “Moulin Rouge.” But if Kidman gets a Globe for “The Others” instead, look for a win by Reese Witherspoon in “Legally Blonde.” Personally, I’m rooting for Thora Birch (“Ghost World”). Also in: Cate Blanchett (in the flop “Bandits”) and Renée Zellweger for “Bridget Jones.”
Best Actor (Musical/Comedy): The heavyweight contender here is Gene Hackman as the scheming paterfamilias in “The Royal Tenenbaums,” a movie that needs an Oscar boost. But he’s notorious for not picking up awards in person – which matters to the HFPA – so Ewan McGregor may sneak in if there’s a “Moulin Rouge” sweep. Hugh Jackman (“Kate & Leopold”), John Cameron Mitchell (“Hedwig and the Angry Inch”) and Billy Bob Thornton (“Bandits”) are just watching.
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Connelly as the spouse in “A Beautiful Mind” is a slight favorite over Marisa Tomei (“In the Bedroom”). Also nominated: Cameron Diaz (“Vanilla Sky”), plus three Brits: Maggie Smith and Helen Mirren of “Gosford Park” and Kate Winslet (“Iris”).
Best Supporting Actor: Ben Kingsley’s image-shattering turn as a tough Brit gangster in “Sexy Beast” seems the clear winner. Also in: Jim Broadbent (“Iris”), Steve Buscemi (“Ghost World”), Hayden Christensen (“Life as a House”), Jude Law (“A.I. Artificial Intelligence”) and Jon Voight (“Ali”).
Best Director: Logic dictates that if “The Lord of the Rings” wins Best Movie, this one should go to its director, Peter Jackson. But it doesn’t help Jackson that he’s been locked in an editing suite finishing his trilogy while “Moulin Rouge” helmer Baz Luhrmann has been working the crowd hard since his movie’s debut in Cannes in May, so Luhrmann’s the favorite here. The other nominees? Robert Altman (“Gosford Park”), Ron Howard (“A Beautiful Mind”), David Lynch (“Mulholland Drive”) and Steven Spielberg (“A.I.”).