Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)

So are you kind of thinking what i'm thinking GW? The normal N.A.D position isnt amazingly far south of where the line is so could it be that an off shoot is a bit further North?

See sawing around at the moment then B.F.T.V where will it land i wonder?

Hi Be cause I know the dynamics of missing ice but this line of anomolies just seem different especially if you trace the line backwards Gray .Wolf has mentioned studies in the past, that indicate a possible shift and penetration to more northerly lattitudes, and the sea surface temps have been 8-10.c above average all winter witout hardly budging

B.F.T.V and Gray wolf have you any opinions on this?

Hi quest4peace .. I would still suggest that all anomalies over 4C are highlighting missing ice cover ,, they are all directly adjacent to negative anomalies .. However I agree that the waters north of Scotland and east of Iceland are incredibly warm considering .. maybe the heat is needed by the blooming algae .?

Sadly the Algal blooms do not seem to be helping that much? Recent papers seem to suggest that once the ice melts the blooms descend into the depths were they are consumed by bacteria creating oxygen free zones of dead sea floor? For those folk who think the changes up there are not impacting the eco-system I think they need to read these papers and go figure what that means to the life in the basin??

Hi BFTV! With all the shattered ice now mobile I still wonder at an extent max as floes shift out of the basin at both the Atlantic and Pacific sides? I know we still have some very cold temps there so the fissures will ice over but it may well lead to folk ,yet again, being lulled into a false sense of security?

How do you personally see this well fragmented pack responding to the start of melt season? Could it be a blessing in that large expanses of melt water flooded ice cannot appear over ice well fragmented? (and not contiguous?) or does it just mean an increase in surface area to mass and so an even more rapid melt out?

Another large increase for Cryosphere Today, taking us up to 13.668 million km2. For February 26th, this is higher than all years back to and including 2004, and also 1996. It's also the closest to average we've been since May 1st of last year.

Hi BFTV! With all the shattered ice now mobile I still wonder at an extent max as floes shift out of the basin at both the Atlantic and Pacific sides? I know we still have some very cold temps there so the fissures will ice over but it may well lead to folk ,yet again, being lulled into a false sense of security?

How do you personally see this well fragmented pack responding to the start of melt season? Could it be a blessing in that large expanses of melt water flooded ice cannot appear over ice well fragmented? (and not contiguous?) or does it just mean an increase in surface area to mass and so an even more rapid melt out?

The extent values are certainly going to climb. On CT we can see the Barents area finally growing, as the +ve dipole pattern takes hold and drives the sea ice southward. This is going to export the ice that has thickened up over winter, and replace it with just a thin covering, so while it will look good in extent and area for a short time, it will leave the ice very vulnerable later in the season. The +ve dipole pattern looks set to remain for the foreseeable future, so some strong Barents sea ice growth should be expected, and I'd say the highest maximum since the early 2000s?

I don't think the ice has fragmented enough that it will reduce the amount of melt water sitting on top of it. We're still looking at flows from several km2 to thousands of km2 in size.

It will be interesting to see how stubborn the air pressure patterns becomes this Spring. With the ice so thin and fragmented, the winds are going to be a bigger role than usual I'd say.

Hi quest4peace .. I would still suggest that all anomalies over 4C are highlighting missing ice cover ,, they are all directly adjacent to negative anomalies .. However I agree that the waters north of Scotland and east of Iceland are incredibly warm considering .. maybe the heat is needed by the blooming algae .?

Hi I quite like your idea of the blooms acting as a fail-safe when the ice goes. And I can't ignore the bad state of the ice at the moment I:e the massive cracks. Annoyingly at a time when area has done quite well seemingly just now over previous years.Also the arctic above 80 degrees seems to be going through it's coldest period for many a year. So many contradictions at the moment to what we are visually seeing, and i'd like to think the eye doesn't lie. Which makes me wonder about Gray Wolf's theory of a change in direction of the warm currents. We shall soon be able to see what is unfolding with onset of melt. Not looking forward to it.

And just a round up of all the factors that make up the arctic

Extent on IJIS shooting up again to chaallenge 2012's extent?. Is a little cheer not deserved for the better than recent years area

Really close to average as far as area goes now

Surface Temps 80n

Arctic -50c temps have died back somewhat but still very cold And then the conundrum of that traceable line of warm sst that reach back from svalbard down towards Canada in a line.

Confusing to say the least

P.s then we have this diagram :/ Brown region this years min?

Edited February 27, 2013 by quest4peace

Here's an animation of MODIS imagery over the Beaufort, Chukchi area between February 10th and and 27th. That last frame shows a huge extension of the break up.

A better quality version is attached.

Almost like watching Larson collapse?

Keep an eye on Wokingham Weather as they seem to have a piccie a day over Beaufort? Yestedays shows the cracks you highlight quite well esp. the expansion to across the entrance of the NW Passage deep channel.

I remember the opening of the passage was hindered by ice flowing across the entrance so I'm wondering if this break up has ensured we do not see such this year?

When I read around the breakup ~I keep coming across just how exceptional it is bringing the earliest other date for such back 40 days (at least)!!!

Though i have not seen it is reported to now have reached Wranggel island? That is all the way across the Basin from Alaska to Siberia!!!

I think the folk expecting an ice 'rebound' after last years record min may have a further shock awaiting them???

Thanks to Chris Reynolds over on the Sea ice Forum for the animation but it highlights both the opening up of Beaufort but also the rift along the Siberian Coast and the Flow moveing toward Fram. Keep and eye on both Barrentsz and Greenland sea ice extents as it looks like they are about to rise as the ice flows out into the Atlantic.

Why do you think that is?

Sun still going into a very quite period quite worring for summer months in northern hemisphere it"s the lowest activity in a 50 yrs according to NASA “Indeed, the sun could be on the threshold of a mini-Maunder event right now,†NASA said last month. “Ongoing Solar Cycle 24 is the weakest in more than 50 years. Moreover, there is (controversial) evidence of a long-term weakening trend in the magnetic field strength of sunspots.WE are are going into a pretty cold period.

We're stuck in the middle of a cold PDO forcing with a run of la-Nina's and had a very long solar min and what did global temps do? What did the summer Arctic sea ice do? What did the mass loss from Greenland do?

What i do not think you are willing to grasp id that the forcings unleashed by the slow 'drip ,drip' of AGW are far greater than the solar variance (otherwise would not 2010 have shown a marked dip in temps???)

The forces now unleashed By AGW are in the ascendant and so their forcing will grow stronger over the coming decades. At the same time PDO will fade to neutral and swing positive (with the associated uptick in El-Nino's). Over the same period we expect the ozone hole over Antarctica to heal some more and that the 'Dirty pollution' from Indo-China will be cleaned up allowing higher levels of TSI at the surface.

No matter what the sun does the planet's on-board forcings will ramp up warming. We had better just be thankful of any mitigation your promise of low solar may offer us?

Interesting to note that the IJIS extent has dropped by about 170k over the last 5 days. A little unikely, but potential for a February maximum there.

I've also been watching that BFTV? With all the ice on the move I had expect a growth spurt as the ice relaxes out into barentsz and Greenland sea areas (time for that still?) on it's way into Fram?

It would be a double whammy to see ice peak so early in the year and to be in such a disrupted state? If the state of disruption is a good 40 days early then, compared with last year, ice max would also be well early?

I think my main focus for the season will be to see how early the bulk of the pack melts out? If we are consistantly seeing the pack majority melted by late July/early Aug then come the first summer after melt out we could expect a lot of open water by Aug. That will mean a lot more time under sun for a lot more of the ocean.

I also wonder at the mixing GAC12 caused in the Beaufort Sea/Central basin. Has this 'warmth' been perculating back to the surface layer and helped limit ice thickness there? The speed and extent of the breakup there is now truely without comparisome with new fissures reaching deep into the ice of the C.A. (multiyear pack). Should we have another few days of the same then the whole of the pack will have become involved in this odd event?

More arctic ice than 1996

Date Arctic ice area

1996.1644 13.5241079

2013.1644 13.7504234

And how much has volume dropped over that period Keith? And so what does this tell us about the ice this year?

A little unikely, but potential for a February maximum there.

Wouldn't be surprised........

Edited March 5, 2013 by Don

Just seen the US Navy 'drift' forecast for the next 5 days and it really does not look good for the ice over Fram. The fact that we are still in a 'full ice' period means that any movement on one side of the pack gets translated over to the other side so the kind of shunt that is expected from the shattered ice in Beaufort could well push a large mass of ice into Fram.

I would keep and eye on things over the coming weekend to see just how much of an issue this causes?

The Northern Hemisphere animation on meteociel gives a good overview of the patterns to be expected over the Arctic in the next week or so.

The dipole looks like hanging on for even longer, and looks likely to give a near opposite pattern over the Artic for the first 2 weeks of March compared to last year. Because of this, I think we've reached our peak extent for the Bering Sea, but may continue to see some slow growth over the Greenland and Barents area during March and early April if the dipole pattern continues.

Air Pressure Anomaly....................... Continuation of Dipole Pattern Upper Air.................. Sea Level Pressure Dipole

First 2 weeks March 2012................. 8-10 Day 500mb Geopotential Height Anom.............GEFS NH SLP Mean Day 8

No dramatic losses in extent/area for the next few weeks at least, unless the Bering sea ice takes an unexpected dive.

I Suppose if the ice from Beaufort rides over onto the ice north of the C.A. we'd see some dramatic reductions? (LOL)

For the ice not to have formed over much of Barentsz/Greenland sea the SST's must still be relatively warm so I suppose it depends on how slowly the ice pushes into those areas as to how quickly we see extent go up?

Sadly, like last year, we see good ice lost to be replaced by a thin skim in time for melt season. I do think that any 'rebound' in ice levels is unlikely esp. with such a thin/mobile pack. If we see a spring full of winds blowing ice into Fram we could lose half our good ice even before we see our first 'melt' losses!

It will be another interesting year to be 'ice watching' that's for sure!

http://www.woksat.info/etcvc05/vc05-1423-a-apt-w.htmlThe

The forecast push will run the ice through the pole toward Fram, we can all see where this leaves our multiyear ice.

Edited March 5, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

And how much has volume dropped over that period Keith? And so what does this tell us about the ice this year?

Seems to say that Ice gains and losses run in cycles ,I expect this period of very low Solar activity to result in very cool wet summers and colder winters until solar activity increases .

Seems to say that Ice gains and losses run in cycles ,I expect this period of very low Solar activity to result in very cool wet summers and colder winters until solar activity increases .

It might result in cooler, wet summers and increased cold spells in winter in western Europe. What has that got to do with the ice though?

It might result in cooler, wet summers and increased cold spells in winter in western Europe. What has that got to do with the ice though?

You will see all records ammount of ice in the Antarctic ,while the Arctic will struggle for ice gains in the west side of Arctic few yrs yet until Tidal flows change direction.

You will see all records ammount of ice in the Antarctic ,while the Arctic will struggle for ice gains in the west side of Arctic few yrs yet until Tidal flows change direction.

Thanks for the quick reply.

What do you mean by tidal flows?

Why is there no balance between the Arctic and Antarctica?

The growth in Antarctic sea ice is not statistically significant, like the increase in global temperatures in the last 15 years isn't statistically significant. The loss in Arctic sea ice is very significant.

Also, the Arctic has been losing ice since at least the late 70s, this covers the high solar activity period up to 2006, and the low solar activity since. There really doesn't appear to be a link to solar cycles to me.

I don't think its a double whammy whether we get an ice maximum in February and not March because most of the sea ice gains and losses are from outside the basin and ice areas such as the Sea of Okhotsk is largely depends on wind direction whether ice reduces or grows.

It seems most of the losses may of occured around Baffin Bay/Labrador Sea with ice retreating from the Canadian coastline with winds coming from the Atlantic instead of the cold landmass, perfectly normal but with ice growing in Barents from cold Northerlies then whilst we seen some losses, it does balances itself out as per normal for this time of year.

Its what happens during the melt season which will determine how low we will go, should be an interesting one for sure.

Edited March 5, 2013 by Geordiesnow

When we see the kind of fragmentation that we have recently the wide leads formed quickly ice over. Losses around the margins may well balance out these 'gains' but it does mean a lattice of very thin ice between the flows. This ice is only cm's thick and cannot survive should the pack move due to wind/wave/tide. this leaves an even more fragmented pack as floe bashes into floe.

Come melt season the broken ice will melt faster than solid sheets of ice.

This is what we have this year with multi km leads throughout Beaufort and fractures now moving into the multiyear pack north of the canadian archipelago.

When we see the kind of fragmentation that we have recently the wide leads formed quickly ice over. Losses around the margins may well balance out these 'gains' but it does mean a lattice of very thin ice between the flows. This ice is only cm's thick and cannot survive should the pack move due to wind/wave/tide. this leaves an even more fragmented pack as floe bashes into floe.

Come melt season the broken ice will melt faster than solid sheets of ice.

This is what we have this year with multi km leads throughout Beaufort and fractures now moving into the multiyear pack north of the canadian archipelago.

Fractured ice would melt faster but there may also be increased ridging resulting in thicker areas, be interesting to see what happens.

Animation from the NSIDC of the sea ice fracturing event that's going on at the moment. Tis quite dramatic!