GOP wins don't alter 2016 math: Our view

​

No doubt there is much celebrating among Republicans after having recaptured the Senate majority they lost in 2006, and rightly so. They won by fielding a generally solid and disciplined roster of candidates who were able to capitalize on President Obama's unpopularity and outperformed the expectations set by pre-election polls. Unlike 2010 and 2012, the GOP didn't throw away easily winnable races with extreme or inept nominees.

Republicans are also thrilled with the strong showing of their gubernatorial candidates, who were poised to sweep all of the close races and pick up one or two unexpected ones, including victories in heavily Democratic Maryland and Massachusetts.

But the celebrations should be brief. The Republican victory in the Senate — made possible in part by the target-rich environment of 2014, in which Democrats had to defend seats in six very red states — does not alter the dismal math the GOP faces going forward.

With its low standing among the young, women and especially immigrant voters, the party faces a tall order in winning the White House in 2016, when turnout will spike by roughly 40% and include many of the marginal voters who tend to vote Democratic. Its control of the Senate could also be short-lived, as the electoral map in two years will be more favorable for the Democrats. Republicans will have to defend seven Senate seats in states twice won by Obama, while Democrats have no seats up in Republican states.

To sustain Tuesday's gains, Republicans will have to demonstrate that they can govern — and bring under control the extreme elements of the party that want to define the GOP by government shutdowns and other forms of obstructionism.

On the governance front, soon-to-be Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky is likely to start by passing some bills that made it through the House, with some support from Democrats, but were stalled in the Senate for largely political reasons.

This agenda includes measures to expedite construction of the Keystone XL Pipeline (if Obama does not green-light the project himself after years of stalling), to reinstate work requirements in welfare laws, and to give government and industry more tools to counter cyber attacks. Republicans are also likely to take a stab at corporate tax reform.

All are useful, but none is the type of measure that will make a strong case for GOP leadership. In fact, if the output of the next two years is a pipeline, restrictions on welfare and a fix for burdensome business tax code (without help for the beleaguered individual filer), it could reinforce the party's image of being overly concerned with corporate interests.

If Republicans really want to make the case that they can get things done in Congress, and therefore should be entrusted with the presidency, something bigger — such as an overhaul of the tax code for individuals or deficit reduction that controls entitlement spending — is in order.

Perhaps most important for the long run, the GOP's warring factions will have to come to terms with immigration and the harsh rhetoric that makes the party look as if it has some sort of demographic death wish.

The good news for Republicans is that there is time to make adjustments that would make them competitive in presidential election years. If they can do that, then they would have longer-lasting reasons to celebrate.

USA TODAY's editorial opinions are decided by its Editorial Board, separate from the news staff. Most editorials are coupled with an opposing view — a unique USA TODAY feature.