台灣山區道路崩塌災害潛勢評估

37 1
100 1
Taiwan Highway Engineering
Vol.37 No.1 Jan. 2011. pp.5-24
*********
Kendall
()
**
***
Vol.37. No.1 Jan. 2011
37 1 -5
Toshiyuki Kurahashi (2008) 1990~2004

1310 90% 80%
(2009)
24
1994;1995;1999;2002 ;2004
1996
2005
2008 18 21 8 16 9
(2006)
18 Glade et al.(2000)
Wieczorek and
Glade(2005)
Mark and Ellen, 1995; Glade et
al., 2000; Cannon et al., 2004; Dai et al., 2004; , 2007; , 2005; ,2009
37 1 - 6
Vol.37. No.1 Jan. 2011
()
()()
1
Vol.37. No.1 Jan. 2011
37 1 -7
2
1990 2007 10 3
2 8 221 20 21 9
8 20 21 9 7 7 18 14 24 27
2
(1990~2007 )
3.1
37 1 - 8
Vol.37. No.1 Jan. 2011

8 20 21 9 7 7 18 14 24 27
(a)(b)(c)(d)(e)
6~7
20082009)
VP
1
TDi i Dij i j i
i=1 7i=5 9 j
3.2
1990~2007
18 109
38 1
Vol.37. No.1 Jan. 2011
3
(: 1990-2007 )
37 1 -9
1 (1990~2007)
()
15
12
38
109
2
2 8 20
26 7 20
8 20 7 7 9
2
(TR)
2
i i=6
j j=1 7j=5
9 TRij i j TTi i
RDTij j i Lij j i
TR
37 1 - 10
10
Vol.37. No.1 Jan. 2011
2 1990~2007
9 9 9 9
8

14
18
20 21
24
27
15
12
38
109
20
18
26
13
17
12
26
16
10
3.3
Kendall
Logistic regression
- Kendall
(Pearson Product-Moment
Correlation)
(nonparametric) Kendall
Vol.37. No.1 Jan. 2011
11
37 1 -11
Kendalls coefficient of rank correlation(tau)
Kendalls tau-b
2006
Kendalls tau-b
X Y Kendalls tau-b
nc n d
(3)
(n0 n1 )(n0 n 2 )
n0 n(n 1) / 2
n1 i
t i (t i 1) / 2
n2 j
u j (u j 1) / 2
nc X Y (X1>X2) , (Y1>Y2)(X1<X2) ,
(Y1<Y2)nd X Y (X1>X2),(Y1<Y2)
(X1>X2),(Y1<Y2)
X i u j Y j
n nd 0 X Y
1
2
1
2
nc ( n( n 1)) nc 0 nd ( n( n 1))
-1 +1
1()
24
1994;1995;
2004
2003
37 1 - 12
12
4
Vol.37. No.1 Jan. 2011
Kendalls tau-b
4
Menard2002;2003
Dai et
al.(2004)
24 (2003)
18
2005
2007
2008
2009
2003; 2007
log it ( y ) a b1 x 1 b2 x 2 b3 x3 ... e
(4)
y y=1 y=0 Xi
a bi Xi e logit(y)
log it ( y ) In(
p
)
1 p
(5)
p y 1-p y p/(1-p)
odds
p
In(
) a b1 x 1 b2 x 2 b3 x3 ... e
1 p
(6)
SPSS a,b1,b2,b3, logit(y) p

(6) a,b1,b2,b3,
exp(a b1 x1 b2 x 2 ...)
p
1 exp(a b1 x1 b2 x 2 ...)
Vol.37. No.1 Jan. 2011
(7)
13
37 1 -13
Kendalls tau-b
7
a,b1,b2
()
46
5 5
4.5%
1.54.5% 1.5%
5 9 7
8 21 21
18
21 27
7 9
20
9 7
6 2009
26
39
6 5
37 1 - 14
14
Vol.37. No.1 Jan. 2011
()
3 (TR) 7 3
3 7
8 9 9
7 8
7 8
8 20 21
8
20 21 7
Vol.37. No.1 Jan. 2011
15
37 1 -15
3
20 9
20
20 7
8 20 21
20 8
9
46
7
3
7 7 8
43%
33%
33%
20%
17%
25%
0%
25%
14%
20%
29% 43%
33% 33%
53% 60%
20% 40%
0% 33%
17% 25%
0% 25%
0% 25%
0% 29%
20% 20%
10
9
9
9
9
14 18 20 21 24 27

57%
17%
7%
20%
0%
25%
0%
0%
14%
20%
37 1 - 16
0%
0%
29%
29% 14% 14% 29%
14%
0%
33%
47%
40%
17%
8%
0%
25%
29%
20%
0%
20%
0%
0%
8%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
7%
60%
17%
17%
25%
25%
0%
20%
0% 33% 33% 33%

27% 20% 53% 40%
0% 0% 60% 20%
0% 0% 50% 17%
8% 8% 33% 25%
0% 0% 25% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 29% 0%
0% 0% 20% 20%
33%
27%
20%
0%
8%
0%
0%
14%
0%
33%
27%
0%
0%
8%
0%
0%
0%
0%
16
Vol.37. No.1 Jan. 2011
8
()
2001 ~2008
2001~2008
Kendall's tau b 4
Kendall's tau b
0.702**
0.515**
** 0.01
Vol.37. No.1 Jan. 2011
17
37 1 -17

SPSS
Score Wald
5
p
In(
) a b1 x1 b2 x 2 3.984 0.013R 0.015RI
1 p
(8)
P R RI
(8)
1 p
R
In(
) (0.015 RI 3.984)
0.013 1 p
(9)
B S.E.
Wald
Exp(B)
(b1)
0.013
0.001
96.420
1.000
0.000
1.013
(b2)
0.015
0.005
7.384
1.000
0.007
1.015
(a)
-3.984
0.327
148.479
1.000
0.000
0.019
7 p RI (9) R
R RI p 9 30%50
80% 300mm 50
80mm/hr 320mm 80%
9
37 1 - 18
18
Vol.37. No.1 Jan. 2011
()
2009
10 11
6
14
0.64
0.29
10
0.40
0.10
22
0.27
0.05
(1)
2009 8 5
2000mm
8 5 8 10
10
2000mm
20 21
20 21
27 24 20 21
Vol.37. No.1 Jan. 2011
19
37 1 -19
24 20 21 (
) 27
8 20 21 24 27 18
24
(2)
2009 10 3
11
7 7
9
320mm 20mm/hr
60% 7 7
37 1 - 20
20
Vol.37. No.1 Jan. 2011
7
7
80%
Vol.37. No.1 Jan. 2011
21
37 1 -21
2009
1990~2007
8 20 2009
20 21 24 27 18
1. Cannon, S.H., Gartner, J.E., Rupert, M.G. and Michael, J.A., 2004, Emergency assessment of
debris flow hazard from basins burned by the Cedar and Paradise fires of 2003, southern California
, U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 2004-1011.
2. Dai, F. C., Lee, C. F., Tham, L. G., Ng, K.C. and Shum, W. L., 2004, Logistic regression
modelling of storm-induced shallow landsliding in time and space on natural terrain of Lantau
37 1 - 22
22
Vol.37. No.1 Jan. 2011
Island, Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment, 63, 315-327.

3. Glade, T., Crozier, M.J. and Smith, P., 2000, Applying probability determination to refine
landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds using an empirical Antecedent Daily Rainfall Model
, Pure & Applied Geophysics, 157, 1059-1079.
4. Mark, R. K. and Ellen, S. D., 1995, Statistical and simulation models for mapping debris-flow
hazard, Geographical Information Systems in Assessing Natural Hazards, 93-106.
5. Menard, S., 2002, Applied Logistic Regression Analysis, 2d ed. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
6. Toshiyuki Kurahashi, Yoshinori Yajima and Yasuhito Sasaki, 2008, Landslide disasters and
hazard maps along national highways in Japan, The 2nd East Asia Landslides Symposium, Seoul,
Korea, May 22-23, 2008.
7. Wieczorek, G.F., and Glade, T., 2005, Climatic Factors Influencing Occurrence of Debris Flows
, Matthias and Hungr, Oldrich, eds., Debris-flow Hazards and Related Phenomena, Praxis,
Springer, Chichester, UK, Ch. 14, p. 325-362.
8. 2003
logistic -
9. 2009
10.2004
11.2008
P1-10
12. 74 1999
pp.39~46
13.1994
14.2003()
15.2008
16.2009
17.2007

18.2005-
19.2003
20.2005-
Vol.37. No.1 Jan. 2011
23
37 1 -23
21.1995
22.2004
23.2007
---
(III)
24.1996
25.2006-
I
26.2002
921
27.2008
1/4
28.2009-
29.2006
37 1 - 24
24
Vol.37. No.1 Jan. 2011

台灣山區道路崩塌災害潛勢評估

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37 1

Vol.37. No.1 Jan. 2011

Toshiyuki Kurahashi (2008) 1990~2004

Vol.37. No.1 Jan. 2011

Vol.37. No.1 Jan. 2011

Vol.37. No.1 Jan. 2011

Vol.37. No.1 Jan. 2011

Vol.37. No.1 Jan. 2011

Kendalls coefficient of rank correlation(tau)

SPSS a,b1,b2,b3, logit(y) p

Vol.37. No.1 Jan. 2011

29% 14% 14% 29%

0% 33% 33% 33%

Vol.37. No.1 Jan. 2011

Vol.37. No.1 Jan. 2011

Vol.37. No.1 Jan. 2011

Vol.37. No.1 Jan. 2011

Vol.37. No.1 Jan. 2011

Vol.37. No.1 Jan. 2011

Vol.37. No.1 Jan. 2011

Island, Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment, 63, 315-327.

Vol.37. No.1 Jan. 2011

Vol.37. No.1 Jan. 2011

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