DoD gives new sequestration details — Public urgency missing from Washington’s Ukraine response — Thornberry attracts Lockheed money

With Jonathan Topaz, Jeremy Herb, Austin Wright and Philip Ewing

WHAT HAPPENS IF SEQUESTRATION STICKS AROUND POST-2015? You don’t know yet?! The Pentagon has been warning about the consequences for some time now … Remember the ol’ Sword of Damocles? And how can you forget then-Defense Secretary Leon Panetta’s letter to Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) from November 2011? The prognosis was grim.

“We would also be forced to terminate most large procurement programs in order to accommodate modernization reductions that are likely to be required,” Panetta predicted. In an attachment, he said this could mean the end of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program. http://1.usa.gov/1hJgDef

Fast forward to yesterday ... DoD released a new 36-page report, titled “Estimated Impacts of Sequestration-Level Funding,” in which it once again provided details about what sequestration would mean for the department. http://1.usa.gov/1hJjBxq

Basically, the Pentagon still isn’t happy about what lies ahead if Congress doesn’t intervene, but it’s nothing like the picture Panetta painted.

— FOR EXAMPLE, THE F-35 BUY WOULD MERELY BE SCALED BACK: Far from canceling the program, the Pentagon would need to cut 17 of the 343 F-35 fighters it plans to buy from Lockheed Martin if sequestration stays in place, reports Bloomberg’s Tony Capaccio: http://bloom.bg/1t61jfs

Unlike the Panetta letter, the Pentagon is finally being very specific about what it would need to cut if it’s not given the extra $115 billion it requested in its five-year spending plan. But like Panetta’s letter the goal is the same: scare Congress into providing more money. The sky is no longer falling, but the risks are made clear: At sequestration levels, DoD would need a new strategy.

“Overall, sequester-level cuts would result in a military that is too small to fully meet the requirements of our strategy, thereby significantly increasing national security risks both in the short- and long-term,” a Pentagon statement accompanying the report says. “As [Defense] Secretary [Chuck] Hagel has said, under sequester-level budgets, we would be gambling that our military will not be required to respond to multiple major contingencies at the same time.” http://1.usa.gov/Qbdsk3

— MAN, THESE REPORTS ARE EXPENSIVE: Yesterday’s sequestration report? $19,000 in DoD labor. That’s relatively cheap, though, compared to some past reports. For example, last year’s annual report on the Chinese military cost $95,000. And the price tag for November’s report on progress in Afghanistan? $211,000.

UMM, IS THIS REALLY HAPPENING? “There’s a sense of unreality inside the Beltway as news networks broadcast images of armed, masked men carrying out military operations in the worst standoff between Russia and the West since the end of the Cold War,” reports POLITICO’s Philip Ewing. “Yet business seems to continue as usual.” http://politico.pro/1npQ7Gr

Based on public remarks and the schedules of senior U.S. officials, there appears to be no “public sense of urgency,” about what’s going on in Ukraine, Ewing reports. What gives? Is this part of a strategy, or is there no strategy?

MEANWHILE, THE PENTAGON SAYS RUSSIA’S ICBM LAUNCH MONDAY WAS NO CAUSE FOR CONCERN: The Pentagon has confirmed that Russia test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile Monday under a normal test program and after making the appropriate treaty notifications to the United States.

DoD spokesman Col. Steve Warren said Russian officials acted correctly under the New START treaty to alert the international community about the test. “We were watching and we immediately assessed it was no threat,” he said.

LAWMAKERS WOULD LIKE EUROPEANS TO STOP DOING BUSINESS WITH RUSSIA: In a letter to Secretary of State John Kerry yesterday, 11 lawmakers, including eight senators, said NATO countries should cancel contracts with Russia to deter Moscow from future aggression in Ukraine.

The lawmakers particularly pointed to a French contract to sell two warships to Russia that is moving forward, as well as Hungary’s recent acquisition of three Mi-8 transport helicopters from Russia’s Rosoboronexport. Pros can read the letter here: http://politico.pro/1h0i8yE

IT’S WEDNESDAY. Spring seems to have briefly disappeared here in D.C., but we’re told it will be back. In the meantime, please send your ideas, defense tips and any feedback to [email protected] and follow on Twitter at @k8brannen, @morningdefense and @PoliticoPro.

MORE INFO ON THE U.S. ANTI-TANK ROCKETS SPOTTED IN SYRIA, via Reuters’ Peter Apps: It’s still not possible to verify the authenticity of the videos in which the Raytheon-made BGM-71 TOW anti-tank rockets appear or definitively name the supplier.

But an opposition activist based in southeastern Turkey who is a former member of Harakat Hazm — one of the groups shown in the videos with the weapons — said that they were provided by the U.S., Apps reports. “The Syrian activist, who identified himself as Samer Muhammad, said Harakat Hazm received 10 anti-tank missiles earlier this month near Aleppo and Idlib, two cities torn by heavy fighting near the northern border with Turkey.” http://reut.rs/1euzp8u

THORNBERRY IS ATTRACTING LOCKHEED DOLLARS: Lockheed Martin employees have given Rep. Mac Thornberry more than $40,000 in individual contributions since House Armed Services Chairman Buck McKeon announced his retirement, federal election filings show.

Thornberry, considered the front-runner to succeed McKeon on the panel, received 38 contributions from Lockheed executives, program managers and attorneys, according to the first-quarter FEC report filed Tuesday. He reported 123 itemized individual contributions of more than $200.

GUARD LOBBY CHALLENGES THE ARMY’S OPPOSITION TO FORMING AN OUTSIDE COMMISSION: “Nothing seems more distasteful to Army leaders these days than the notion of Congress creating a commission to take an outside look at how best to structure the force for 2020 and beyond,” retired Maj. Gen. Gus Hargett, president of the National Guard Association of the United States, said yesterday in a statement.

Why are they so afraid of letting an independent panel weigh in on these decisions? According to Hargett, it’s because the Army’s five-year spending plan will not withstand scrutiny.

“An unbiased review also would show that shifting all of the Army National Guard’s Apache attack helicopters to the active component saves no money while squandering the Total Army’s most experienced Apache pilots and maintainers,” Hargett says in his statement, which you can read in full here: http://goo.gl/WQ49pU

— ARMY: THE AIR FORCE NEEDED AN OUTSIDE COMMISSION BECAUSE ITS PLAN FAVORED THE ACTIVE-DUTY FORCE: In response to Hargett’s comments, the Army pointed Morning D toward Army Chief of Staff Gen. Ray Odierno’s testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee on April 8.

He told the committee then the Army had formed its plan in a transparent manner and had gained the approval of DoD’s most senior leaders, including the combatant commanders. Plus, unlike the Air Force, “our plan disproportionately reduces active forces over National Guard and Reserve forces,” he said.

IS HEARTBURN OVER HEARTBLEED FOR NOTHING? “Go ahead and change your password if it makes you feel better, but passwords as protection failed years ago,” writes James Andrew Lewis for the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The personal information of hundreds of millions of consumers is at risk thanks to sophisticated cyber-criminals, he says, but they’re not using the newly disclosed vulnerability named Heartbleed to gain access. http://goo.gl/RhqvnW

This read will make you feel better if you haven’t changed your passwords yet … until it makes you feel much worse, because your info isn’t safe anyway.

SPEED READ

— Retired Gen. Wesley Clark and former Pentagon official Phillip Karber argue the U.S. needs to provide Ukraine nonlethal military aid. The New York Times: http://nyti.ms/1p9bTmd

— The Pentagon is trying to find a way not to break a multiyear contract with Sikorsky and Lockheed Martin for about 90MH-60R helicopters. Defense News: http://goo.gl/TQGbDw

— A new CBO report that warns of increasing U.S. deficits and debt in the future could mean more cuts for the defense sector. Defense News: http://goo.gl/xFv5wZ

— President Barack Obama will award the Medal of Honor to former Army Sgt. Kyle White for his actions in Afghanistan at the White House next month. Army Times: http://goo.gl/79WYPz

— Iran officially submits a protest letter against the Obama administration’s refusal to grant a visa to its new U.N. Ambassador Hamid Aboutalebi. AP: http://abcn.ws/1na4mlj

— U.S. officials say a new video of Al Qaeda fighters, apparently in Yemen, at an open-air gathering appears to be authentic and recent. The Washington Post: http://wapo.st/RnlMOp

— Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Welsh talks about cyberwar, the next generation of stealth and the future of air warfare in a Q&A. Popular Mechanics: http://goo.gl/YiUA1k

— Instead of scrapping any of its ships, why not transfer surplus U.S. warships to allied navies, argues consultant Michael Moran in an op-ed. The LA Times: http://lat.ms/1qZuFIg

— CIA director John Brennan went to Ukraine over the weekend to discuss new ways for the U.S. to share intelligence with the country. The Daily Beast: http://thebea.st/1gF7tOn

— Afghanistan’s budget shortfall is worsening at the same time the country faces a monumental political transition and foreign troops leave. The Washington Post: http://wapo.st/1qYHVNB

MAKING MOVES

— BROWN LEAVES DOD: Kathy Brown, an associate general counsel at the Defense Department, has joined the law and lobbying firm Covington & Burling, POLITICO Influence reports, to work on contracting and acquisition issues for its aerospace, defense and security industry group. More from PI: http://politi.co/1npb1VS