Thread: The effect of 1.121 on realm and class balance - DATA AND GRAPHS

It's been nearly a month since I last did some graphs and data. This week I've decided to use data to look at the impact of 1.121 on realm and class performance.

To do this I've taken three weeks of data post-patch (25 June - 14 August) and compared it to three weeks of consecutive data pre-patch (21 June - 10 July). Results are below, but first, some key points to consider before you draw assumptions.

There is a lot of data here - there are lots of assumptions you can make, but please don't jump to huge conclusions based on one data point

• The data I use is from @Vanesyra website and is available on a week by week basis. Patch 1.121 went live on 26 June, which means one week of the post-patch data includes 1 day of old pre-patch 'meta' (i.e., data from Monday 25 June). The servers were also down for an extended time on the 26.
• Data from the week 11-18 July was broken - the Herald stopped capturing data. I've omitted this week from the data.
• To get three consecutive weeks of pre-patch data, I've used three weeks from 21 June - 10 July.
• I've used various different measures (total rps, percentage share of total rps, percentage point change, and percentage change) - some of these different measures are appropriate for different figures. I've explained where relevant.
• This data is very limited - there are lots of nuances in just three weeks of data and it is very susceptible to outliers (see necromancers, for example). A more ideal study would look over a longer period of time, for example.
• This data is not definitive. It should be combined with played experiences of players, etc., and basic understanding of the game. Because the data sample is quite small in terms of time and number of players, other influences - for example, changes in zerg leaders, temporary breaks from key players, etc., can have a big impact on data.
• The patch is very new. Many of the effects of the changes will take months to be realised. The data below points to an initial reaction, rather than any long-term trend.

Key findings

• Midgard, already dominating RP totals prior to the patch, has extended their lead significantly after 1.121. The realm balance in recent weeks has been abysmal.
• Albion has seen little change overall, albeit is performing slightly better than Hibernia since 1.121 for the first time since I began collecting data.
• Hibernia has plummeted in RP totals since 1.121.
• Stealth classes have done extremely well since 1.121. Assassins are now the highest earning RP class across realms by a significant margin.

Graphs and charts

Population (number of characters) over time

Here are the basic graphs I include in all my data showing the number of characters over time. This data includes level 50 characters only. The number of characters is the closest proxy for population size, although one player could log in several characters in a week period. The light green dots are a three-week rolling average.

Midgard has 39% of the character population in the most recent week, followed by Albion on 33% and Hibernia on 28%.







Realm points over time

Realm points earned have stayed relatively steady for the last two months. However, the divide between the realms has increased since 1.121. In the most recent week, Midgard captured 47% of all RPs earned, nearly the same amount as the other two realms combined (Albion 28%, Hibernia 25%). For the first time since I started collecting data, the balance of realms has shifted and now Hibernia is bottom of the pile.







The effect of 1.121 on RPs earned by realm

The graph below shows the change in share of RPs earned by each realm when comparing two three week periods, one pre-patch (21 June - 10 July) and one post-patch (25 July - 14 August). The figure is the percentage point change (e.g., Midgard have improved 5.8 percentage points from roughly 41% to 47%. Likewise, Hibernia have declined from roughly 35% to 28%). Since the patch, Midgard appears to have improved significantly, while Albion has seen little change. The biggest impact, however, can be seen in the hefty decline of Hibernia.

The graph below shows the effect of 1.121 on realm balance (assuming all other variables are equal - as mentioned above, they aren't, although I can only speculate what other factors have influenced these changes).



The effect of 1.121 on RPs earned by classes

The following graph shows the amount of RPs earned by each class in the three weeks post-patch (orange) and compares them to the amount of RPs earned in the three weeks pre-patch (grey). The graph is arranged from by order of total RPs earned since patch (left to right).



The next graph is a little more complicated. This shows the change in share of RPs earned by each class since 1.121 (i.e., all classes earn 100% of all RPs. Shadowblades increased their share of RPs earned by 5.0 percentage points since 1.121). The data is presented in this way to show a relative change compared to other classes. All classes in the negative have reduced their share of RPs earned. All classes in the positive have increased their share of RPs earned. The net effect is 0.

For those interested in a bit more detail - the standard deviation of RPs earned by class has increased from 10 million/week pre-patch to 13 million/week post-patch (the average RP/week/class pre and post patch is roughly 19m). This suggests that 1.121 has so far reduced, not improved, class balance - i.e., there are more extremes in class performance.



Changes in RPs earned per character per class

Changes in the number of RPs earned by each class might not be because classes are better - it may simply be because more people are playing those classes. The following graph divides the total number of RPs earned by each class by the number of players for each class, for pre-patch and post-patch.

It shows the percentage increase or decrease in the RPs earned per character per class.

It's important to stipulate that this sort of data is quite volatile over a short period and is very susceptible to outliers (see Necromancers - there were only 20 level 50 Necromancers per week post patch, compared to 25 in the three weeks pre-patch. Necromancers earned roughly 700k per week post patch, compared to roughly 500k per week pre-patch. It only takes one player to skew the results on a small dataset. Similarly, this is likely why Bainshees are at the other end of the scale).

I'd argue that Bainshees and Mercenaries are at the bottom of this list because many people have tried the changes (i.e., have logged in), but have either not had much success because the changes were not good for them, or have given up and earned no RPs.



As always, happy to be challenged and look forward to hearing others' thoughts and interpretations of the data.

first

So all-in-all it means NERF NECROMANCERS ? +80% RP increase, wtf?

Or a mere case of lies, damn lies and statistics...

Thanks!

So it seems pretty obvious we've gotten buff mids.

Maybe Hunters / Savages / Zerker / SB 2 Handed all needs improved.

Nerf Friars / Heretics / Necro / Mercs

Increase stealth group size by 10, lower RUT on Vanish/Phase Shift/Zeph by 10 mins.

rip bard & ment

$#@!in Vamp nerfs, man

Fantastic use of the data. Amazing analysis.

Thank you, @Simon

Keep calm , they know what they're doing

nice work

Also it appears pop is actually trending down once more post patch

Originally Posted by Sleepy_will

Also it appears pop is actually trending down once more post patch

The population (number of level 50 characters logged in earning at least 1 RP) has stayed very balanced in the three data points post patch. It's also August, when everyone is on leave. I'd think it'll start to increase in September for seasonal trends.

In other words - I don't think 1.121 has had any discernable effect on the number of level 50 characters logged in per week.

Originally Posted by Peraine

Tnak you! Maybe the downfall from hibernia is, because hero cant get as much rp from keeps anymore?

Negative.

Last Week, Hero was number 6 in kills. The only character that was not a Mid in the top 10. Only 5 hibs in the top 50 in kills, the rest were mids. The first Alb was at 51, Stardust (you go girl)!

In realm points last week, Hero was 17, only one other Hib was higher, at 16. Out of the top 25 in realm points last week, 18 were Mids, 5 were Albs and 2 were Hibs.

Last week Hero was number 4 in Deathblows. And since keeps don't show up as a deathblow, I am guessing he is doing okay post patch.


http://sc.excidio.net/herald/

Originally Posted by Thegarfield

looks like stealthers are getting into groups, working as intended.

Actually getting a lot of request from visi's to join our stealth group.

Originally Posted by Sprouty

So all-in-all it means NERF NECROMANCERS ? +80% RP increase, wtf?

Or a mere case of lies, damn lies and statistics...

Stats by themselves are terrible - that's why I've added a lot of caveats and explainers.

As for Necromancers - I'm pretty sure it's one or two people who have dusted them off to join the new Alb Zergs that have been running post-patch. Their share of total RPs is so miniscule (>1m per week) that just one new person playing in RvR regularly would lead to a huge percentage increase.

Originally Posted by Sleepy_will

Keep calm , they know what they're doing

Originally Posted by Aevu

Interesting.

What would be interesting would be the measure of the population last year. The population drop is probably due to the summer (and actually may have been less dramatic this year thanks to the patch).

Yeah - I don't have data from before March. I know it's stored in databases on the vast interwebs but I'm $#@! at anything requiring programming, which I gather I'd need to do to extract data.

I plan to keep doing it into next summer so we have comparable seasonal effects.

Remove stealth

No reason any realm should have 47% of the RPs. Something needs to happen fast to balance things out.

Originally Posted by Stang

No reason any realm should have 47% of the RPs. Something needs to happen fast to balance things out.

Mid is just too easy atm.

Originally Posted by Simon

Originally Posted by Sleepy_will

Also it appears pop is actually trending down once more post patch

The population (number of level 50 characters logged in earning at least 1 RP) has stayed very balanced in the three data points post patch. It's also August, when everyone is on leave. I'd think it'll start to increase in September for seasonal trends.

In other words - I don't think 1.121 has had any discernable effect on the number of level 50 characters logged in per week.

What I'm saying is that this notion that sooooo many players came back for this looks to be false and the chart that should the last 2 previous weeks appeared to trend downwards . . .

Reread the chart characters per realm , alb / hib < while mid is going ^

Although it's bitter sweet at this point to say I told ya so (regarding making Assassin's / Ranger - Hunters stupidly OP) . . .

Wait no it's not . . .

Love the work @Simon .

Aside from class balance/buffs it isn't surprising to see some of teh statistics particularly stealthers.

I think a huge part of Hibernias demise is due to the flat RP nerf on talking keeps - this does a number of things, including making the Herorius Horde alot smaller because people aren't getting their RP/H even thou it was very low.

But on the grand scheme of statsitics 1-3k bonus times 100 people very quickly adds up over 6-10 keeps per session.

I have pretty much played Albion only myself since the patch, due to teh fact there is a billion mids to farm (don't question my counting please @Karados - everyone agrees with me but you), and during my timeslot there is also more hibs to fight than their is albs. I have been testing out the new Siege Mechanics/Bonus since the patch came into effect almost nightly outside of the weekends.

One thing we have noticed whilst sieging with 8 people - is that the population my time of day whilst practically dead

* Yet i can always muster up 20-30 people to come defend their precious glenlock/nged. It is actually quite crazy.
* This is actually more people defending than there is Albs in /NF.
* Yet NF is a total ghost town aside from duos and stealthers.

Well when broadsword takes things away from Hib and doesn't even care to mention it, or address it on these boards then you know they are the red headed step child realm. I have said for a long time, there job would be easier if they only had two realms to balance. You can say its just one example, but the Bainshee is one of the least played classes in the game, only seconded to necro i believe. And they lost spells, no patch notes, no word from broadsword. Only CDFW or whatever his name is saying he "heard john say he was gonna fix that" Am i right @Simon

They were given shears, in the patch where shears were toned down
And more than a few spells are just gone, with no word. The reason you don't here about it, is because the 20 people left who play bainshee regularly don't often post here.

And i'll be the first to admit the rp's for keeps have affected some hibs, not Hero, but some of them in the morning. And how did this help? The population is just not logging in now. Or if they get zaney and all log on alb, then most of hero's players will log off. So now instead of a hib zerg running around the island you have an alb zerg running around the island chasing soloers and looking for stealthers. The only people who thought this was a good change are people who had a hard one against hero. Hes still doing fine, still going to be the first RR14 ect ect. It hurt the small mans, the soloers and the people that ran with him in the morning (my morning sorry)

I tried making a post about how i thought hib was let down this patch, and i got the usual "shut up hib is good" response. But if you honestly broke each class down, and had a real decent human being conversation about it, i think anyone would say "maybe it was a little bit of a rough patch for hib"

Interesting to see that Minstrels have not benfited from the patch, even though Albion realm rps are up slightly and stealth activity is up. Theyve also received some positive changes.

What is mostly interesting is that everyone keeps saying Midgard is overpopulated while infact it is the game telling me Mid-Ywain is underpopulated:

mid-underpop.jpg

(and yes, I'm fully aware Mid is over-represented on Ywain, but still thought it was funny, screenshot is from 2 days ago...)

Originally Posted by Peraine

Originally Posted by Sorvad

Originally Posted by Peraine

Tnak you! Maybe the downfall from hibernia is, because hero cant get as much rp from keeps anymore?

Negative.

Last Week, Hero was number 6 in kills. The only character that was not a Mid in the top 10. Only 5 hibs in the top 50 in kills, the rest were mids. The first Alb was at 51, Stardust (you go girl)!

In realm points last week, Hero was 17, only one other Hib was higher, at 16. Out of the top 25 in realm points last week, 18 were Mids, 5 were Albs and 2 were Hibs.

Last week Hero was number 4 in Deathblows. And since keeps don't show up as a deathblow, I am guessing he is doing okay post patch.


http://sc.excidio.net/herald/

Yeah, im sure Hero himself is still doing fine, but overall i think the changes to keeps had an impact on the overall RP. I`m, not sure, but wasnt it like 2500 RP for a keeptake for every member of the BG? So, with his 50-60man that was a huge number of realmpoints for hibs during the eu time every day. Now, the most RP`s go to hero and his group, while the lesser zerglings feast on the little restovers.

The vast majority of RP's were still coming from fights before the patch. The vast majority of RP's are coming from fights after the patch.

late night US (midnight eastern till 3am-ish), my experience is that there is only one fg running sometimes (Devastation). We've started playing hib more because of it, and when you log in Crim, it's creepy. There will be less than 10 people in Crim, and most of them are stealthers' bots. Very eerie.

Been a ton of mids & albs on during my pt recently. Got hit by a 20+ stealth zerg of albs the other night... at like 1am. 20+. We've actually started discussing making a stealth group to go fight other stealth groups since there are more of them on than actual 8mans on during our playtime.

Originally Posted by Jester

Well when broadsword takes things away from Hib and doesn't even care to mention it, or address it on these boards then you know they are the red headed step child realm. I have said for a long time, there job would be easier if they only had two realms to balance. You can say its just one example, but the Bainshee is one of the least played classes in the game, only seconded to necro i believe. And they lost spells, no patch notes, no word from broadsword. Only CDFW or whatever his name is saying he "heard john say he was gonna fix that" Am i right @Simon

They were given shears, in the patch where shears were toned down
And more than a few spells are just gone, with no word. The reason you don't here about it, is because the 20 people left who play bainshee regularly don't often post here.

And i'll be the first to admit the rp's for keeps have affected some hibs, not Hero, but some of them in the morning. And how did this help? The population is just not logging in now. Or if they get zaney and all log on alb, then most of hero's players will log off. So now instead of a hib zerg running around the island you have an alb zerg running around the island chasing soloers and looking for stealthers. The only people who thought this was a good change are people who had a hard one against hero. Hes still doing fine, still going to be the first RR14 ect ect. It hurt the small mans, the soloers and the people that ran with him in the morning (my morning sorry)

I tried making a post about how i thought hib was let down this patch, and i got the usual "shut up hib is good" response. But if you honestly broke each class down, and had a real decent human being conversation about it, i think anyone would say "maybe it was a little bit of a rough patch for hib"

Yeah - what they've done to bainshees is $#@!ty. Nerfed a decent spec line to give shears that won't be used, and given light fluff in other lines. Not sure what the thinking is.

Can we bring back TLs? Need some expertise on individual classes...

Originally Posted by Ashmir

late night US (midnight eastern till 3am-ish), my experience is that there is only one fg running sometimes (Devastation). We've started playing hib more because of it, and when you log in Crim, it's creepy. There will be less than 10 people in Crim, and most of them are stealthers' bots. Very eerie.

Been a ton of mids & albs on during my pt recently. Got hit by a 20+ stealth zerg of albs the other night... at like 1am. 20+. We've actually started discussing making a stealth group to go fight other stealth groups since there are more of them on than actual 8mans on during our playtime.

EU prime yesterday had mid around 450, alb at 300 and hib at 250.

That's just ridiculous though it's nice to see Alb having population.