Poll shows GOP challenger Funke with big lead over O'Brien

Three first-term Democratic senators are trailing their Republican challengers in critical races that will help decide control of the chamber, a Siena College poll today found.

Republican Rich Funke had a 25 percentage-point lead, 57-32 percent, over Sen. Ted O'Brien, D-Irondequoit, Monroe County. Republican Sue Serino led Democratic Sen. Terry Gipson, D-Rhinebeck, Dutchess County, 52 percent to 40 percent. Republican George Amedore led Sen. Cecilia Tkaczyk, D-Duanesburg, Schenectady County, by 10 percentage points.

All three Democrats won in 2012, aided by the presidential election in a state with twice as many Democrats than Republicans. While Democrats won the Senate majority at the ballot box in 2012, a group of dissent Democrats joined with Republicans to keep the Democratic conference from power.

While Gov. Andrew Cuomo heads the Democratic ticket on the Nov. 4 ballot and is a heavy favorite, turnout statewide will be much lower than in a presidential year.

Senate Democrats and Republicans are looking for divisive victories on Election Day, hoping to limit the power struggle that has dominated the Senate since 2008 -- when Democrats won control for the first time in more than 40 years.

The poll is good news for Republicans, who Siena last week found was winning two competitive Long Island seats, too.

O'Brien is facing Funke, who is well known for his decades as a TV broadcaster, in a district that stretches across eastern Monroe and northern Ontario counties.

And the poll shows how well known Funke is: He had a 60 percent to 23 percent favorable to unfavorable rating, while O'Brien's was split 38 percent to 36 percent. That's even as Cuomo held a 10-percentage-point lead against GOP foe Rob Astorino in the district, Siena said.

"A long time and popular newscaster, Funke is better known and viewed far more favorably than O'Brien, even in a district with slightly more likely Democratic voters than Republicans," said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg in a statement. "Funke's got 84 percent of Republicans in his corner, compared to O'Brien's 61-28 percent lead with Democrats. And Funke has a crushing 37-point lead with independents."

Gipson, whose district covers parts of Dutchess and Putnam counties, won in 2012 in a three-way race against long-time incumbent Sen. Stephen Saland, R-Poughkeepsie.

Now facing a one-on-match against Serino, a county legislator, he's down 12 percentage points, the Siena poll said. Cuomo held a narrow 45 percent to 42 percent lead in the district against Astorino.

"Gipson won with 44 percent of the vote two years ago – a presidential election year – beating the incumbent Republican by about 2,000 votes, while a Conservative candidate garnered 17,000 votes. Now, Serino, running on the Republican and Conservative lines, has a 52-40 percent lead, and a significantly better favorability rating than Gipson," Greenberg said.

Amedore lost by just 18 votes two years ago to Tkaczyk, but had a 52 percent to 42 percent lead in the poll, Siena said, in a district that stretches across the Albany area and into Ulster County. Astorino was leading Cuomo there, 43 percent to 35 percent.

"This year's version certainly has the potential to be tight heading into Election Day but Tkaczyk and the Democrats are going to have to outwork Amedore and the Republicans – particularly in winning over independents and turning out voters of their party – if they want to close the current gap," Greenberg said.

Siena surveyed about 470 voters in each district from Sept. 30 through Oct. 1, and each poll had a margin of error of about 4.5 percentage points.